It can be thrown around a bit too often, but that game certainly felt like playoff baseball. You can slice it, dice it, stir it, and shake it, but no matter how you spin it, through four games these White Sox have given the Cubs all they can handle. The games have been old fashioned pier six brawls. The Cubs jumped out early and for three innings this felt like a lovely night at the park. But the Sox added three in the fourth to take the lead. The Cubs got two back in the fifth to retake the lead. But then the Sox got two in the eighth to take it one more time. There was scoring in six of the 10 innings of this game, but in no inning did both teams score.
WPA loves a good momentum swing. So there was WPA flying all over the place in this one. I’ll write more tomorrow about the WPA from this one as the numbers often swing between the time I’m writing about them and the following morning when Al is editing and posting. As I’m writing, there were 11 events that swung the win probability of this game by more than 10 percent (and two more that would round to 10). WPA recorded 90 events in the game, so on 11 percent of the plays in the game, the win probability changed by 10 percent or more. That’s wild. Four of those swings were by 25 percent or more. Nico Hoerner was at the plate for two of those four. And that’s how Nico Hoerner stole a Superhero from the one most of you probably had in your head.
I do this on a daily basis and I know I was thinking of Pete Crow-Armstrong as I was pre-writing in my head. A walk-off homer will overshadow a whole game. A walk-off homer after a first pitch of the game homer? That’s a 70-year occurrence. Well, it’s been that long since it happened. Being fair, it’s more likely to happen going forward than it was going backwards. Power hitters didn’t often lead off until the modern game. The two National League front runners for MVP both lead off for their respective teams that are expected to make deep playoff runs.
In fairness, Pete did generate a lot of WPA. A lead-off homer in a more than 10 percent event (10.1% percent). A walk-off homer is a significant event. It’s crazy that a walk-off homer in extra innings isn’t a bigger event. But, it’s a little less than 20 percent. In part, modern baseball tilts it so much that in extra inning game, if you don’t allow a run in the top of the inning, you have to feel like you are a very good bet to win the game. That’s exactly how WPA sees it. I couldn’t readily find statistics, but a significant majority of games that do go extra innings go exactly one extra inning. The Cubs and Sox each played their 17th extra inning game Monday night. The Sox have gone past 10, doing it recently with the Red Sox(13). Two Cubs game have gone 11. The White Sox have actually had five go more than 10.
The White Sox are experiencing just a few growing pains. They are 7-10 in extra innings, 28-35 on the road and 15-18 against the NL. There’s some randomness in extra innings to be sure. But it helps to have veteran guys who know their role. Jacob Webb will be another unsung hero for the Cubs in this one, gritting through the 10th inning. Winning on the road is tricky too. Winning against the other league has a lot to do with adapting quickly to players you haven’t seen much of. When they figure those things out, that team can be a handful. This is a very good win.
My three stars are going to be exactly the three guys we talked about up here. Pete Crow-Armstrong, good evening and then good night. Nico Hoerner, two momentum swinging hits in one game. A wild two-run single in the fifth turned a one-run deficit into a one-run lead (with a little help from an errant Sox throw). An enormous one-out, RBI single in the ninth to keep the game alive. Jacob Webb picks up a win for surviving the 10th. It’s so hard to avoid a run with the ghost runner. He issued two walks, but got two huge strikeouts and a weak grounder, getting credit essentially for all three outs. As always, in these razor thin margins, just about every positive contribution was absolutely vital to the win. So hat tip to all of the other key contributors. But I do think these three stand a fair bit ahead of the rest.
Game 126, August 17: Cubs 7, White Sox 5 (73-53)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Nico Hoerner (.797). 4-5, 2 RBI
- Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.372). 4-5, 2 HR, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, 2 R, SB
- Sidekick: Jacob Webb (.311). IP, 5 BF, 2 BB, 2 K (W 5-2)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Ryan Zeferjahn (-.422). IP, 6 BF, 2 H, BB, 2 ER, K
- Goat: Carson Kelly (-.232). 1-5, R
- Kid: Michael Busch (-.211). 0-5
WPA Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner’s single with runners on first and second and one out in the ninth, the Cubs down one. He tied the game. (.492)
White Sox Play of the Game: Andrew Benintendi’s two-run homer in the eighth to give the Sox a one-run lead. (.475)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 125 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 39 of 47 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +30
- Alex Bregman +19
- Shōta Imanaga +14
- Trent Thornton +13.5
- Carson Kelly +12.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Edward Cabrera -12.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -19.5
Scoreboard Watching: Phillies win (five back). Diamondbacks lose (seven back). Padres win (six back). Braves lose (one up). Dodgers win (two up). Brewers were off (4.5 up).
Up Next: Game two of the three-game set with the White Sox. Kevin Gausman (6-11, 4.53) gets another start for the Cubs. He’ll look to bounce back after allowing six runs in 4.2 innings of his last start. I haven’t seen a formal listing of the Sox starter, but Fangraphs suggests Bryan Hudson (3-4, 3.14). Hudson would be an opener. If I look back for the corresponding turn in the rotation, Erick Fedde was the “bulk” guy behind an opener last week for the Sox. Fedde is 6-8 with a 4.51 ERA.
Regardless of how the Sox deploy their pitching, that’s going to look like a win. Fedde never really lived up to the potential associated with a first round pick. Go win another series. This one would be against a very good team. Take advantage of catching them when your rotation is better positioned than theirs.