MEMPHIS, Tenn. – Depending on which algorithm you land on, Tip O'Neill, a former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, is widely credited with the axiom, “all politics is local.” In the apolitical world of professional golf it’s a strangely apropos sentiment as the PGA Tour rounds into the season’s final fortnight.
Election season is quickly approaching for the Tour’s rank and file with three post-season stops remaining, including this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, and no clear front-runner for who will claim the Jack Nicklaus Award, which is given each year to the circuit’s player of the year.
Most seasons the PoY race has already been decided by the time the Tour lands in Memphis to start the post-season – like last year when Scottie Scheffler began the playoffs with four victories, including two majors. By comparison, this season is a bona fide free-for-all.
In FedExCup order, this year’s ballot would include Scheffler, who has been a model of consistency with 16 top-25 finishes in 17 starts but just a single victory in January at The American Express. Just behind Scheffler on the regular season points list is No. 2 Matt Fitzpatrick with three victories (RBC Heritage, Zurich Classic and Valspar Championship), No. 3 Cameron Young with two titles (The Players and Cadillac Championship), No. 4 Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open and CJ Cup Byron Nelson) and No. 5 Chris Gotterup, who also has three Tour tilts this season (Sony Open, WM Phoenix Open and John Deere Classic).
Rory McIlroy, who won the Masters for the second consecutive year, thankfully narrowed the field this week when he dismissed himself from the PoY ballot unless he were to go on a post-season run that could tip the current status quo. He also put into context how players, who vote for PoY, might tackle a decision with no obvious choice.
“Oh, geez, it's a hard one because I think right now it's objectively there's no one that really stands out, but subjectively it depends what you value,” McIlroy said. “So if you value winning the biggest tournaments, you would say it could be Cameron Young and Wyndham Clark in terms of one won The Players, one won the U.S. Open. Obviously Matt Fitzpatrick has had a great year. Scottie's had an unbelievably consistent year without the wins that he's had the last couple years.
“It all depends on what you value. I guess I value like the bigger tournaments and guys having the bigger moments.”
For context, Tour players tend to be insular types who focus on the task at hand — playing really good golf. They are not as up to speed on the nuanced possibilities of PoY candidates. It’s an understandable reality that led to this exchange with Adam Scott.
“Cam Young has two wins?” Scott asked. “And The Players is one.
“Wyndham's got two with the U.S. Open. Who's got three, Gotterup and Fitz?”
And then Scheffler, who Scott jokingly dismissed with a laugh, “He's won [the Nicklaus Award] plenty.”
“Look, I think there's not much separating them. Maybe it's the next three weeks that decides who it is,” Scott said. “I can build cases for all of them if you want, but it might come down to these playoffs to see who get the vote.”
Wait and see is the most popular and easiest approach to the closest PoY race in a decade and even when pressed for a vote today, with three events remaining that could easily swing the outcome in any of the contender’s direction, most choose to ride the fence.
“It really depends on what the person that's clicking the button values more or who they may like more,” Gotterup said. “There's no bad answer is what I'm trying to say. I think if you said anyone, no one would be like that's BS, like someone got screwed.”
When pressed for an answer, Keith Mitchell offered the only possible option with so much meaningful golf remaining — and such a thin margin between the would-be winners.
“If you just go off wins it’s impossible to choose,” he said. “Because you’ve got guys with majors and signature events, you’ve got guys with three [victories]. And if you go off the points race you’ve got Scottie leading, he’s got the least amount of wins but the most amount of points.
“It’s hard not to go with Scottie since he’s got the most points," Mitchell added. "I want to give 51 percent [of his vote] to Scottie, 49 percent Cam Young.”
Scheffler, who has won the Nicklaus Award the last four years, made a PoY statement Friday at TPC Southwind with birdies at six of his first seven holes on his way to a second-round 61 to take a three-shot lead heading into the weekend.
Ultimately, the vote may end up having nothing to do with wins or FedExCup points and come down to the most basic political bias – likeability. The PoY vote, like any vote, is a popularity contest, a truth that was proven in the race to the 2019 Nikclaus Award.
McIlroy and Brooks Koepka finished the ’19 season with three victories each. McIlroy’s haul included The Players, Tour Championship and RBC Canadian Open; while Koepka won the PGA Championship, FedEx St. Jude Championship and CJ Cup (which was played in the fall of 2018). In what could be viewed as an upset, McIlroy won the Nicklaus Award.
The same personality dynamics could also decide this year’s race, but it seems more likely that someone from the impossibly crowded PoY field separates themselves on the course before the season ends later this month in Atlanta.
