3 reasons why Sri Lanka should believe they can beat India at home originally appeared on Cricket News. Add Cricket News as a Preferred Source by clicking here. KEY TAKEAWAYS:
India's recent home Test losses to New Zealand and South Africa expose a weakness against quality spin bowling. Sri Lanka boast in-form spinners like Prabath Jayasuriya and know exactly how Galle's pitch behaves over five days. India travel without Jasprit Bumrah, leaving a young, inexperienced attack short on Test know-how.
Are Sri Lanka favourites against India in the two-match Test series? There's a reason Sri Lanka aren't walking into this series as underdogs, whatever the world rankings might say. Three good reasons, actually, and all of them point straight at India's soft spots heading into Galle. This isn't a case of a struggling minnow talking itself up before a beating; it's a genuine shot, built on recent history, home conditions, and a visiting side that's missing their World No.1 Test bowler capable of being decisive on any pitch on the planet. So, when Shubman Gill comes out for the toss on August 15 morning, he will be hoping to win it and allow his batsmen to have a go fresh on the wicket, rather than bat against the odds in the fourth innings. MORE: ICYMI: What India’s warm-up win over Sri Lanka tells us before the upcoming Tests 1) India's awful recent record against spin tells its own story Forget reputation for a second and look at the scoreboard. India have lost home Test series to both New Zealand and South Africa in 2025; results that would've sounded absurd a decade ago. The batting collapses weren't down to raw pace or seam movement either; spin did the damage almost every time. Yashasvi Jaiswal fell to slow bowlers six times across those two series, managing just 31 and later 20.75 with the bat. KL Rahul barely got going, averaging 17 in his two South Africa appearances. Shubman Gill lost his wicket to spin four times against the Kiwis, and Rishabh Pant scraped together only 49 runs across two Tests versus South Africa, dismissed twice by Simon Harmer. Even Ravindra Jadeja, usually so reliable, was out to spin seven times in that stretch. Put simply, this Indian top order has forgotten how to bat long innings against turning balls, and Sri Lanka know it. MORE: Gambhir's fate as India Test head coach based on IND vs SL Test series result revealed
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2) Vulnerable India should be wary of Jayasuriya Indian bowlers have been historically terrorised by a certain Sanath Jayasuriya with his brutal batting, be it in Tests or ODIs. Now, Sri Lanka has a different Jayasuriya in their ranks, and this time the batsmen should be wary. Galle belongs to Prabath Jayasuriya, more or less. The left-armer has picked up 122 wickets in just 23 Tests, and nobody, from either side, has played more matches at this ground than him. Throw in Ramesh Mendis, who's quietly taken 71 wickets in 16 games, and Sri Lanka have a spin pairing that knows exactly which lengths choke run-scoring and which patches of rough to target once the pitch starts misbehaving. Former all-rounder Farveez Maharoof didn't hold back when assessing India's vulnerability, pointing out how strange it was that New Zealand got hammered in Galle before going on to beat India 3-0 at home. “I think the record speaks for itself,” Maharoof said. “Losing to New Zealand 3-0 was a shocker in my opinion, because before New Zealand went to India, they actually played two Test matches in Galle and Sri Lanka beat them comprehensively. Then the New Zealand side went to India and won 3-0.” MORE: Indian batters warned about Sri Lanka's major 'weapon' during Test series It isn't only about the surface, it's about knowing what to do once that surface changes. Sri Lanka captain Dhananjaya de Silva put it well when he explained that scratching out runs here demands patience most touring batters simply don't have. And Indians, who specialise in IPL heroics, will most likely have a tough run. "The difference is that it's quite hard to get runs over here and the batters really need to dig in and show temperament to score a sizeable number of runs," De Silva said. "We know how to approach our innings. We know when it's going to start turning. Several batters become clueless when it turns and don't know how to go about a knock in these conditions. "Stats-wise, we have the upper hand. Prabath has played more matches than any other guys in the two teams, especially in Galle. He has had the upper hand over many touring batting lineups over the years. Plus-one to Sri Lanka, I would say."
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3) Injury issues further plague India India aren't just battling good spinners on a helpful pitch, they're doing it without half their strike force. Jasprit Bumrah is out of the entire series with a knee issue, replaced by uncapped quick Auqib Nabi. Washington Sundar is missing with a hamstring problem, Harshit Rana and Nitish Kumar Reddy are both unavailable for the full tour, and Akash Deep is nursing a back injury. That leaves Mohammed Siraj carrying the new-ball load almost alone, backed up by bowlers with barely any Test cricket behind them. Prasidh Krishna has played seven Tests, and Gurnoor Brar is yet to earn his cap. MORE: Full list of injuries suffered by India stars in 2026: Latest updates with Indian cricket in a fitness crisis Add all this up, and you get a touring side that's short on firepower, shaky against turning deliveries, and coming off back-to-back home series defeats walking into the one ground on earth where the opposition's best bowler has made a career out of exploiting exactly that weakness. Sri Lanka aren't hoping for an upset here. They've got the personnel, the conditions, and recent evidence all lined up in their favour, and if they play with the patience De Silva talked about, there's no reason this shouldn't be a genuinely even contest. Maybe even one where the hosts start as favourites. India will need something close to their best to avoid another chastening lesson against spin, this time at the hands of their less illustrious neighbours. For all the latest cricket news, opinion, and commentary and to share your voice, head to our Facebook, Instagram, and X (Twitter) pages.