Men’s tennis isn’t exactly in an age of parity. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz dominate tournaments when both play, and there is a strong class of second-level threats waiting to dunk on anyone lucky enough to avoid them — Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic to name a couple. But eventually, we’re going to get a true “dark horse” champion. Maybe it’ll be at the 2026 US Open.
By my calculations, the last actual “dark horse” that won a Grand Slam was at the 2014 US Open with Marin Cilic. Some will argue Dominic Thiem in 2020, but that was a weird tournament because of the COVID-19 pandemic; none of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer were present, and Thiem was the number two seed. My definition of a dark horse would be a fifth seed or lower actually winning it (Novak Djokovic excluded, I’m not calling the GOAT a dark horse). So who do we have in the 2026 field that could shock the world?
1. Taylor Fritz
Fritz has a game that lends itself very well to hard courts, and a lot of this stuff goes for fellow big-serving American Ben Shelton as well (who I wrote a whole profile of if you’re interested). Fritz has sorta been renegaded off the spot of “best American male player” by Shelton, but save for a poor clay court season, Fritz has had a solid year. He’s always been a strong player on the surface, and his lone ATP 1000-level trophy was on the hard courts of Indian Wells.
I used to say Fritz was in put-up-or-shut-up territory as a high-level player, but I think he’s really settled into his game in his late 20s. He’s never going to be a world beater, but he can contend at a high level in favorable environments. The US Open could be that.
2. Flavio Cobolli
The new hot item in men’s tennis and part of the very-real Italiannaissance, Cobolli feels primed for a leap into the top group. He’ll have to prove he’s ready to beat the best in big-time matches if he’s going to ascend up the rankings any further. He’s had a good year overall, but a more checkered one off clay. His lone career title came on hard courts, but he doesn’t have the kind of track-record that suggests he’s a hidden demon.
…but he has been very comfortable in five-set matches this year, reaching the French Open final and the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. You know he’s not going to be afraid, and that’s half the battle of making a cinderella run.
3. Daniil Medvedev
This may strike you as a weird pick given Medvedev has been #struggling in Grand Slams for a while now, but I’m giving him some points as a former champion who used to absolutely dominate hard courts in his prime. He’s still not that old, and I wonder if this skid is fixable. Hey, it’s dark horses!
Medvedev is capable of beating the best players in the world, particularly on his favored surface. He just hasn’t been able to execute at a high level lately, and turning his career back around could start where he won his lone major championship in 2021.
4. Rafael Jodar
The teenage phenom took the world by storm with a crazy clay-court season, and he’s certainly a name to watch going into Queens. Much of his potential is theoretical at this point, given the 19-year-old really only has one year on tour to look at. But it’s been a big-time year; Jodar has run Joao Fonseca off the road for best teenage player.
With natural clay courters, you never quite know what the ceiling is at the US Open; it’s not as fast as grass, but it’s just a different game that demands a different approach. There’s no reason to doubt Jodar could have an epic run, but he would need to bring a bazooka to blow up our expectation if he is going to win the whole thing.
5. Learner Tien
One more American for the road. Tien is only 20, and he’s flown up the rankings in recent years despite poor clay and grass seasons. But (say it with me now) the hard courts are where Americans tend to do their damage, and Tien was a serious threat at the Australian Open and at Indian Wells. I expect he could make similar waves at the US Open.
Tien has a lot of things to add to his game before all is said and done, but the baton will continue to be passed from young American man to young American man until someone gets over the hump and wins a Slam. It has now been 23 entire years — like, jeez.