Although the Cubs‘ pitching staff is a lot deeper than it was before the trade deadline, the Cubs had hoped Edward Cabrera’s return would provide a boost. Cabrera has been shelved since June with a left hamstring strain; before that, he missed two weeks at the end of May with a right middle finger blister.
In the starts Cabrera has made for the Cubs this season, he’s underwhelmed. A 5.04 ERA and a dropoff in his strikeout rate was not what the Cubs traded for last winter, when they sent top outfield prospect Owen Caissie, along with two other minor leaguers, to the Marlins.
Cabrera is capable of being the kind of starting pitcher who can round out a strong playoff rotation, but with less than 40 regular season games remaining, he needs to show that he’s the guy the Cubs thought they were getting.
“Frankly, we’re at go time here,” manager Craig Counsell said. “So I think you got to go. We’re at a stage where with the people around the roster that it’s go time. And I think Edward [Cabrera] understands that.”
Facing the Cardinals on Sunday, Cabrera didn’t do much to inspire confidence. It took until just the third batter of the game for St. Louis to claim the lead. Cabrera gave up a leadoff double to JJ Wetherholt, and two batters later Alec Burleson launched a 421-foot rocket into the right field bleachers.
In the 3 2/3 innings that Cabrera pitched, the Cardinals had seven balls in play with exit velocities of at least 92 milers per hour. In all, he gave up seven runs on six hits and three walks. Of the 11 outs he recorded, just two were strikeouts. Given that some of the allure in trading for him last December was the high strikeout rate — as high as 10 per nine innings in 2024 — the Cubs might be experiencing some buyer’s remorse.
After Sunday’ start, Cabrera had a bandaid on his right middle finger, the same one that prompted an IL stint earlier this season. He said he felt a “sensation” on the finger from the beginning of his start and that it continued to get worse as he pitched.
“I tried to push through it but wasn’t able to,” Cabrera said through interpreter Fredy Quevedo, Jr.
That might explain the command issues Cabrera was having. His velocity was as sharp as ever, but Counsell noted that the split between Cabrera’s fastball and his changeup was too small, which factored into his struggles.
“The lack of swing and miss is concerning,” he said. “The separation between the changeup and the fastball right now, the hitter is not showing you that it’s a lot. And so the changeup maybe acts as a sinker at times, but not to the point where you can get some swing and miss on it or the fastball.
“He’s going to need that at some point. We gotta work to get that back.”
Counsell was iffy about whether Cabrera will make his next start when that spot comes up in the rotation, saying that it would have to be “talked about.” But from Cabrera’s perspective, he’s planning to make his next start, no matter the blister and poor performance. He said he had already worked with trainers to address the finger, saying that they’d applied a substance to it to harden the skin.
Asked if he thinks he’ll stay in the rotation, Cabrera said simply, “100 percent.”
There’s some comfort in the short term from the fact that the front office’s aggressive trade deadline means the Cubs have the arms necessary to navigate a postseason, with or without Cabrera. If he is going to continue to be unreliable, the team can manage if he is left off of a playoff roster.
But beyond this season, the Cubs have made a hefty investment in Cabrera. Not only are there the aforementioned prospects it cost to get him from the Marlins, but the 28-year-old was appealing because he is under team control through 2028.
With Sunday’s 11-4 loss to the Cardinals, the Cubs squandered another chance to narrow the gap between them and the Brewers. Headed into Sunday’s game, they were four games back from Milwaukee, a gap that’s widened to five games with Sunday’s results. Though the Cubs are still firmly in the top wild card spot, the division title is in striking distance, so every loss becomes even more damaging.
There are still seven head-to-head contests between the Cubs and Brewers left on the schedule, so the Cubs remain in the proverbial driver’s seat. They can make the most of those matchups when they come in September, but a series loss against the Cardinals now means there will be more ground to cover when the Cubs face Milwaukee.
And Cabrera’s struggles come with greater consequences when set against the fact that Javier Assad was optioned to make room for him on the active roster. Assad has a 3.59 ERA in 21 appearances this season. He has made ten starts and earned two saves in his 11 relief appearances. Counsell said Assad will almost certainly be back later this season, but sending him off to Triple-A Iowa as Cabrera struggled mightily is tough.
“At this point, the decision we made was just to preserve every pitcher,” Counsell said. “And certainly in [Assad]’s shoes, that doesn’t feel fair, but from a depth perspective this was a way to preserve everybody and keep maximum depth.”
In other words, because Assad has options and other pitchers on the 26-man roster don’t, he goes to Iowa and they stay. For now. In light of Cabrera’s issues, that’s a harder decision for Cubs fans to accept.
The first start after being on the injured list since late June wasn’t really going to prove anything one way or another when it comes to Cabrera, but given his performance when he has been healthy this season, it’s not unreasonable to keep tepid expectations going forward. And if the blister continues to be an issue, he might not be available to pitch anyway.
The Cubs need Cabrera to be the guy they traded for last winter for a number of reasons, but the most immediate one is that they’re in a battle for the National League Central and have serious potential for a long run in October. They need him to contribute on both fronts.