Astros fans, let me start by saying I sincerely hope I’m wrong.
Maybe I’m overreacting to one series. Maybe losing two out of three to the Mariners was nothing more than a disappointing weekend against a division rival.
But I can’t shake the feeling that I’ve seen this movie before.
As impressive as the Astros have been in fighting their way out of another enormous early-season hole and climbing all the way back into first place, watching this weekend’s series against Seattle gave me some of the same uncomfortable vibes I had a year ago.
The Astros spent so much energy digging themselves out of trouble that you have to wonder whether they have enough left in the tank to finish the job.
That’s what happened last season.
Houston fought, scratched and clawed its way back into contention and eventually put itself in position to control its own destiny. But after expending so much energy just getting there, the Astros couldn’t finish the job. They ran out of gas down the stretch and ultimately fell short of the postseason.
Could we be watching it happen again?
That’s the concern.
Losing two of three to Seattle isn’t a disaster by itself. The games were competitive, the series was close, and nobody should be hitting the panic button because of one weekend in August.
It’s what we’re seeing underneath those losses that’s troubling.
The bullpen suddenly looks shaky.
Starting pitchers who performed well for much of the season aren’t consistently pitching deep into games or commanding the strike zone the way they did earlier in the year. That puts additional pressure on a bullpen that has already shown signs of vulnerability.
One problem starts feeding another.
Then there’s the offense.
Yordan Alvarez may very well be on his way to winning the American League MVP award, and we’ve watched him put this offense on his back repeatedly throughout the season.
But opponents aren’t stupid.
They know what Yordan can do, and increasingly they’re deciding they’re simply not going to allow him to beat them. They’ll pitch around him, take their chances with the hitters behind him and force somebody else in the Astros lineup to make them pay.
That’s where the problems begin.
Jeremy Peña has cooled off after playing at an incredibly high level. Isaac Paredes has certainly produced, but Houston needs more consistency from him. Christian Walker had a strong first half but has fallen off considerably.
And then there’s the outfield.
How many different ways can we describe the same problem?
It’s been a revolving door of mediocrity for much of the season, with the Astros seemingly waiting for somebody, anybody, to get hot and take control of an everyday job.
That hasn’t happened.
The trade for Daulton Varsho was supposed to help solve the problem, but so far it hasn’t produced anything close to the return Houston needs after giving up a starting pitcher like Spencer Arrighetti, who came with several additional years of team control.
There’s still time for Varsho to turn things around and make an impact.
But the Astros don’t have unlimited time.
That’s what makes the next couple of series so important.
Houston has two very winnable series coming up. This is an opportunity to create some separation in the division, rebuild momentum and perhaps put some of these concerns to rest.
It’s also an opportunity to prove this team has learned from what happened a year ago.
Because we’ve seen the other version of the Astros, too.
We’ve watched them play down to the level of their competition far too often. Instead of taking care of teams they’re supposed to beat, they’ve dropped series—and sometimes gotten swept—by clubs like the Angels and Athletics.
Those are the losses that come back to haunt you in September.
At this point in the season, you can’t give games away.
The Astros have already done the hard part.
They survived the terrible start. They survived the injuries. They survived stretches where it looked like the season might be slipping away. They fought all the way back and put themselves in first place.
Now they have to finish.
That’s why this weekend against Seattle bothered me more than perhaps it should have.
It wasn’t simply losing two out of three.
It was the feeling that came with it.
The feeling that the pitching isn’t quite as sharp. The bullpen isn’t quite as reliable. The offense is leaning too heavily on Yordan Alvarez, and too many other hitters aren’t producing consistently enough around him.
It felt familiar.
Maybe too familiar.
The good news is the Astros have plenty of time to prove that feeling wrong.
The next two series provide the perfect opportunity.
Beat the teams you’re supposed to beat. Create some distance in the division. Take pressure off yourselves heading into September and prove that all the energy spent climbing back into this race hasn’t emptied the tank.
I’ll be watching closely this week with my fingers crossed, hoping this team puts my concerns to rest.
Because after everything the Astros have overcome this season, it would be incredibly disappointing to watch them climb all the way back to the top only to stumble again before reaching the finish line.
So Astros fans, where are you right now?
Are you confident this team has enough left to win the division and get back to playoff baseball?
Or did this weekend against Seattle leave you with that same uneasy feeling that we’ve seen this story before?