The Wild Card Race
The Red Sox are solidly in position to enter the playoffs as the second AL Wild Card. As of the morning of 16 August, they were 5.5 games ahead of the Orioles and the Rangers, who are competing for the third Wild Card.
The Diamondbacks are fighting for a Wild Card. As of the morning of 16 August, the Diamondbacks were tied with the Padres and Phillies for the second and third NL Wild Cards.
Let’s compare the teams.
The Obvious. Per Roster Resource, the Red Sox have four prospects in the top 112 in baseball. This compares to the Diamondbacks who have zero or one prospect (zero per FanGraphs or one per MLB com). That prospect is Demetrio Crisantes.
Obvious and worth noting are two Diamondbacks prospects who recently graduated from top-100 status: Jordan Lawlar and Ryan Waldschmidt.
A Little Less Obvious. James Attwood, SB Nation, wrote that Tommy Troy (getting ready for a rehab stint) was too-soon removed from prospect status; that he ranked Troy as the number one Diamondbacks prospect, putting him ahead of Crisantes. That view bumps the Diamondbacks up to two top-100 prospects.
The Subtle. On their 40-man roster, the Red Sox have 5 home-grown players, which is less than any other team. The Diamondbacks have 16 home-grown players.
Despite being in the bottom eight teams in number of trades, the Red Sox currently have players who were drafted with nearly every team (all 30 teams except the Diamondbacks and Tigers). That included the Rockies who rarely trade (25 trades from 2017 to 2022, which is the least trades of any team).
No player drafted by the Diamondbacks or Tigers is playing for the Red Sox. Why not? Perhaps the reason is meaningful. Perhaps the Diamondbacks & Tigers drafted each player with a specific team-need to meet (eschewing the ideas of draft the best athlete or best talent), thereby lowering the likelihood of any drafted prospect being traded.
The Difference that Matters. The Diamondbacks are a younger team than the Red Sox per ESPN and Statistica. Younger teams tend to be higher energy, and lower cost. One view (perhaps a view held by a minority of fans) is that having a younger team, the Diamondbacks have more skill at drafting and developing needed players.
Team skill at drafting and developing players matters.
Red Sox Player to Watch.
This season, shortstop Andruw Monasterio has negative 12 Outs Above Average (OAA). This compares negatively to Geraldo Perdomo with positive 9 OAA. Poor defense at shortstop has the potential to tip the series to the Diamondbacks.
Mitigating his poor defense at shortstop, he hit well from 1 July to 12 August. His OBP/SLG/wOBA of ,412/.554/.412 compared positively to league averages (same dates) of .317/.403/.316.
Pitching Matchups.
Monday, 4:10 PM MST. Mitch Bratt vs Alec Gamboa. In July/August, Bratt’s ERA was 3.81. In July/August, Gamboa’s ERA was 1.76, but that was as a reliever averaging less than 2 innings per game. Gamboa will make his first start in the Majors. Perhaps he pitches 3 innings and the bullpen continues the game.
Tuesday, 4:10 PM MST. Merrill Kelly vs. Ranger Suarez. In July/August, Kelly had the better ERA (3.74 vs 4.66) and more quality starts (1 vs 0).
“Coming into the day with a fastball that ranked in the league’s sixth percentile for velocity, Suarez’s stuff was even slower than normal Friday, with his four-seamer down 0.9 mph from his season average — it topped out at 92.5 mph — and his sinker down 1.3 mph. — Josh Kirshenbaum, June 2026
This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.
Wednesday, 1:10 PM MST. Brandon Pfaadt vs Payton Tolle. In July/August, Pfaadt had a much better ERA (1.28 vs 3.30). In July/August, each pitcher had 4 quality starts. Tolle currently has a streak of 3 consecutive quality starts.
“[Tolle:] He’s pitching really well. He’s on a heater right now. It was quick outs and not a whole lot of contact quality, so you have to give him credit. He was living up and in on righties. When you’re aggressive, you’ve got to make something happen with the pitches you’re swinging at. That was it. We were trying to hunt the heater, we just didn’t do much with it.” — John Schneider, Manager of Blue Jays, 13 August
This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.