Whether Cincinnati Reds ace Chase Burns is simply slowing down or if the Reds themselves are throttling him a bit we likely won’t ever truly know. That said, he’s only made it through 6.0 IP in 3 of his last 7 starts, and he’s thrown fewer than 90 pitches in 3 of those, too – all while pitching to a mostly un-Burns like 3.99 ERA across 38.1 total IP.
That’s not poor work, by any means, but it’s a departure from the guy we saw before that. That Burns pitched to a 2.00 ERA with 102/29 K/BB in 85.2 IP, much more impactful than the 41/17 K/BB we’ve seen across those most recent 7 starts.
After throwing 43.1 IP at the big league level last season (on top of 66.0 across the minors), Burns has reached 124.0 IP so far in 2026. And with the Reds still mired in the dumps of the National League Wild Card chase and without co-ace Hunter Greene, the odds of them completing some miracle, final week comeback to make a postseason run seem about as long as an Adam Dunn homer. So, there really doesn’t seem to be a need to keep rolling Burns out there every fifth day until the last gasp of the season, especially as the Reds now have him under contract for the long-term and need to manage that as much as each win this season.
An innings limit is inevitable, if not a shutdown altogether.
When I asked you about how many IP the Reds should try to put on Burns this season earlier in the week, you all seemed to think the 150 IP mark was the right threshold for the Reds and Burns to hit.
Notably, 75% of those who responded opted for 140 or 150 IP, with 160 (and more than 160) getting just 25% of the support. In other words, 3 out of 4 of you think it’s best that Burns get about 4 or 5 more typical starts before the Reds put him on ice for the winter.
It’s a slippery slope of a decision, to be sure. You obviously don’t want to see them push him too far this year and risk overworking him, but you also want to see them push him far enough so that, in theory, stretching him out further next year will actually keep him ready for a September playoff push. Teams do typically try to build on these things with their planning, and it sure would be nice to see them planning on trying to make the playoffs in 2027, wouldn’t it?
Regardless, we’ve reached the time in this mostly lost season that we need to cherish watching the Reds new ace each time he takes the bump, since we’re likely down to his last few outings before next spring.
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