Houston's still in first place, but that lead is down to just two games now. And after this weekend, it's not hard to see why.
Hunter Brown's command has been an issue for a while now, and he can't seem to get back to who he was pre-injury. For a guy who is supposed to be the ace, he isn't giving the Astros much. Since coming back from injury, he's walked 13.7% of the batters he's faced over his last 11 starts, way up from his usual 8.2%.
Sunday, the Mariners barely even swung at his pitches, just 30 out of 90, because they know he can't consistently throw strikes right now. He needs to throw more strikes and improve his command. Simple as that.
Saturday was rough on the mound too. Wesneski gave up five runs in four innings, then Blanco came in and gave up five more. That was all the Astros could take, and Blanco got sent down to Triple-A right after the game. Just five appearances back from Tommy John, and he'd already allowed 20 earned runs and seven home runs.
The rotation's ERA sits at 5.12 right now, second-worst in the entire league. That's not great. With Blanco gone and Wesneski still getting his rhythm back, Houston's really only got two starters they fully trust, Brown and Lambert, and Lambert's already closing in on a career high in innings pitched. And Brown hasn't been great. Two solid arms are not enough to keep a major league team going these days with the way these guys pitch, and one arm is definitely not going to cut it.
That being said, there is a chance help is on the way. Ethan Pecko, who was considered Houston's top pitching prospect coming into the season, is expected to make his big-league debut this week against the Angels.
The outfield's not exactly settled either. Varsho's become the everyday center fielder since the trade, but he's only hitting 6-for-44 in an Astros uniform so far. He hasn't been batting well all season, so the likelihood of seeing the improvement they need from him at the plate is not looking good. And he's a free agent after this season, so this whole center field situation could just start over again in a few months.
None of this erases what this team has done this season. The turnaround was real. But a two-game lead with a rotation this shaky isn't a comfortable spot to be in down the stretch.