Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Diamondbacks fans and fans across the country.
Since the break, the Diamondbacks’ rotation has been more than a run better than it was in the first half. Our starter’s ERA has dropped from 4.39 (18th in the majors) to 3.31 (ranked 6th), through thirty games. If sustained, that would be the lowest second-half ERA in franchise history. A major factor in that has obviously been the resurgence of Brandon Pfaadt, who has looked – almost literally – like a completely different pitcher since he returned from his spell in Triple-A. But we have seen virtually everyone in the rotation, from Merrill Kelly through to Mitch Bratt, show themselves capable of shutting down the opposition, on any given night.
Things might yet improve further, with the return of Corbin Burnes coming up, with probably a couple of weeks to go for that. While there are no certainties after Tommy John, there’s potential there for the starting pitching to get a major boost down the stretch. So, presuming he takes Bratt’s slot in the rotation, if the Diamondbacks were to make the playoffs – ideally with enough time to get their rotation set for the post-season – it would present Torey Lovullo with a bit of a dilemma. Albeit a nice one: who should start Game #1 for Arizona? Below are the five candidates, good health being taken as read.
- Corbin Burnes. The staff ace before he was injured, he has the best career numbers, and also the most postseason experience, with a 2.33 ERA across 27 innings.
- Merrill Kelly. Proved his worth during the 2023 run to the World Series, with a 2.25 ERA across four starts, including seven innings of one-run ball in the team’s only WS victory.
- Brandon Pfaadt. Has been astonishing during his recent run, but still has a career ERA+ of only 89. Five post-season starts, although still looking for his first W there.
- Eduardo Rodriguez. An All-Star this year. Far and away the team’s most valuable pitcher this year (4.4 bWAR), having gone 12-4 so far, with a 2.73 ERA that’s a career best.
- Michael Soroka. The best FIP (2.86) among the candidates, and a stellar K:BB ratio of better than four – nobody else in the rotation is even at three this year.
I suspect the poll is likely to skew for Pfaadt, largely because of recency bias (it’s amazing to think that less than two months ago, he wasn’t considered good enough to hold down a long-relief spot out of the bullpen). But y’know something? I’d not be unhappy with any of the five getting the ball. Let’s hope it’s a decision which needs to be made, following the series in San Diego which ends the regular season. There’s a poll below, and as usual, please explain your choice in the comments. Bonus points if you want to line up the rotation and, presuming we only need four man, tell us who would be left off it…
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