Bipolar: Phillies vs. Marlins series preview

Did the Phillies turn their season around with the sweep over the Twins? Or was that series just a brief upturn before they resume their frustrating play?

We might find out this week, as the Phillies will host an opponent that’s been more all over the place than they have. You probably recall that the last time the Phillies played the Marlins, it didn’t go so well for the Fightins. But it’s tough to use that series to predict anything based on how bipolar the Marlins have been.

Already this season, the Marlins have had a six-game winning streak immediately followed by a 12-game losing streak. The sweep over the Phillies was part of a stretch where they won six of seven, only to drop four in a row before winning four straight.

They enter this series going 2-2 in their last four, which seems almost normal. So, they’re probably about to either win a bunch of games in a row or do the complete opposite. Personally, I’m hoping they lose a bunch in a row.

Opposition research: Otto Lopez

It’s somewhat amazing that in a division that features All-Stars like Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, and C.J. Abrams, the best shortstop in the National League East this season might be Otto Lopez. In his first two seasons with the Marlins, Lopez was regarded as a good fielder whose bat was barely adequate. But this season, he’s actually become a plus at the plate, batting .308 with an NL leading 149 hits.

However, much of that success came in the first half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Lopez has regressed a bit.

Those numbers are even worse since the bgeinning of August: In 13 games, he’s batting just .200 with no home runs.

A trip to Citizens Bank Park might not be what he needs to cure his ills. In 15 games at the Phillies’ stadium, he’s batting .196, and has yet to go deep.

Hating on the Marlins

While they’re still in the Wild Card race, nobody seriously believes that this team is actually going to make the playoffs. Instead, they’ll probably do what they’re best at: Prove an irritant to actual contenders.

Hopefully, the Phillies already got their seemingly annual frustrating series against the Marlins out of the way last month. This time around, the Phillies need to put them in their place.

Remembering a guy who played for both the Phillies and Marlins

Jason Vargas finished eighth in Rookie of the Year voting with the Marlins in 2005 when the righthanded pitcher was 5-5 with a 4.03 ERA. But in 12 games the following year, his ERA ballooned to 7.33, and after the season, the Marlins traded him to the Mets.

He spent the next few years circulating around the majors as a decent mid-rotation starter. He missed most of the 2015 and 2016 seasons due to Tommy John (RIP!) surgery but came back to lead the American League in wins in 2017 and made his only All-Star team.

In 2019, he was on his second stint with the Mets. Though he wasn’t having a particularly good season – he was basically a barely passable inning eater – the Phillies were desperate for rotation help, so they sent a lottery pick prospect to New York to add Vargas to their rotation.

Considering he could barely throw in the mid-80’s, it shouldn’t be surprising that Vargas was not the savior the Phillies needed.

He went 1-4 with a 5.37 ERA as the Phillies missed the playoffs. The Phillies made little effort to re-sign him after the season, and his major league career was over.

Additional thought about the series

The Phillies have made a conscious effort to walk more, and it seems to be working. After the Cardinals series in which they hit into about 20 double plays, it would have been easy for them to give up on that approach, but they stuck with it and saw positive results against the Twins.

While on-base percentage isn’t the end all in offensive performance, it stands to reason that if you get enough runners on base, eventually some of them are going to score. It certainly helps that Luis Arraez, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott have been doing an excellent job in getting those runners home lately. Can they keep that up? I’d like to think so, but history says that it probably won’t be smooth sailing from here.