The primary cryptocurrency surged past $65K over the weekend, causing some popular analysts to call the end of the bear market and the beginning of a potential upward trend. However, the revival was short-lived, with BTC briefly plunging to as low as $63,250.
Now all eyes are set on the CPI report, which could trigger a renewed revival but may also cause a substantial pullback.
Pump or Dump on the Horizon?
Later today (August 12), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is about to release the Consumer Price Index data, which shows the inflation rate in the country and provides a vital outlook for the overall condition of the local economy. According to the odds on Kalshi, most traders believe that July’s CPI will come in above 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, while 15% see a chance of hotter inflation at 3.4%.
The report is a key input for the Federal Reserve, which takes the figure into major consideration when shaping its interest rate policy. As such, it is expected to cause volatility in the crypto and financial sectors.
X user Ted noticed that BTC jumped over 10% in a week following June’s CPI and 7.5% after July’s report, when inflation came in lower than expected. Yesterday (August 11). Michael van de Poppe shared his post saying:
“If CPI data comes in greatly tomorrow: BTC goes up. Just simple. As you can see in this chart, the days prior to the release of the CPI data, the markets are going down.”
The analyst who goes by Gerla on X also chipped in, providing a more cautious opinion. They noted that each CPI report from August 2025 until now has been a precursor to heightened volatility, and on several occasions it has been followed by a double-digit price decline for the cryptocurrency.
The Latest Predictions
While the CPI data would likely spark short-term turbulence, what’s perhaps more interesting is how analysts see the longer-term outlook unfolding.
Ali Martinez, who recently spotted several factors that have identified previous bear markets, chipped in again. He believes the downward cycle is in its final stages, predicting one last drop below $57,500 followed by a massive rally to as high as $180,000 sometime next year.
X users Ted and Max Crypto also touched upon the matter. The former opined that BTC has a decent chance of pumping as long as it stays above the crucial $63,000 level, while the latter claimed the asset has broken out of its 10-month downtrend and could be gearing up for an upswing.
For their part, Poseidon envisioned a push above $70,000 in August and then a renewed correction below $60,000 in late September.
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