Brewers get worrying sign for World Series chances with MLB home run history originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Milwaukee Brewers have the likely NL Cy Young winner in Jacob Misiorowski, and their team is one of the best in baseball. They're in great shape for the postseason and should be expected to make another deep run.
However, the Brewers do have some problems that could really hurt their chances. Behind Misiorowski, there is some question about the rotation. But the real issue is with the lineup and the offense.
As USA Today's Bob Nightengale highlighted, recent MLB history doesn't bode well for the Brewers to be World Series champions. The reason why is clear: history favors teams with a lot of homers, and the Brewers are last.
Brewers get bad omen on World Series odds amid HR history
"The last six World Series champions have all finished among the top four in home run totals during the regular season," Nightingale writes. "The Milwaukee Brewers, who have the league's best record, are last."
Over the past six seasons, every World Series champion team was one of the best power-hitting clubs in baseball that season. It makes sense, as the more home runs, the more runs that an offense scores.
The Brewers, whose offense ranks fifth in runs scored this season at 602, are last in baseball with just 113 home runs this season.
Jake Bauers has 21 homers, Jackson Chourio has 17, Brice Turang has 16, William Contreras has 12, Gary Sanchez has 10, Garrett Mitchell and Christian Yelich have eight apiece, and Joseph Ortiz has six. All other hitters have either five homers or fewer.
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The Toronto Blue Jays had 116 homers and have the second-fewest in baseball. The Arizona Diamondbacks have 122 HR, which is the second-fewest among all National League teams.
Only the Brewers, with their measly 113 home runs in 124 games played, have fewer home runs than those teams. They are at the bottom of the league, and it'd take a miracle to climb out of the bottom 10 teams in total HRs this season.
While the Brewers' offense isn't an issue, the lack of home runs is going to pose a real problem. If they can't hit the long ball, history suggests they won't win the World Series.
They could break this trend and win the World Series despite a lack of power-hitting on this team. But this should be a bit worrying for Brewers fans, as history will not be on their side in pursuit of a World Series title this year.
More MLB news:
- Phillies receive slightly worrying 65% playoff odds projection from ESPN
- Red Sox get 8.2% chance to win World Series, which is more than Yankees’ odds
- Dave Dombrowski reveals why Phillies didn't trade for a righty-hitting outfielder
- Tigers feared Tarik Skubal’s trade market would disappear if they waited too long to trade him
- Yankees ‘dabbled’ in trade talks for Tarik Skubal despite not willing to deal George Lombard Jr.