Before last season started, I broke down the season into seven sets of five games. As a newly promoted team with fourteen new players, my expectations were low. I speculated that we needed five points from each set of five games and, to achieve that, we needed to win at least one game in each five-game set.
With Man Utd and Everton away and Chelsea at home as the last three games, I thought the best we could expect was three points, giving a grand total of 38 points and survival. As it turned out, I was very wrong – in a good way. We won six of the must-win games I predicted, drew the other, and won lots more besides.
So, with the season fast approaching, I thought it was time to repeat the process. Last season, the total points we amassed to achieve seventh place – 54 points – was low, given the average over the previous three seasons was 62 points. Perhaps, with the Europa League to contend with, seventh or better is unrealistic.
As Régis Le Bris has stated on several occasions, the aim is to consistently finish in the top ten; maybe that’s a more realistic target. Taking an average over the last three seasons, a 10th-place finish requires 55 points.
To hit that target, each set of five games needs to yield 7.86 points – let’s round it up to eight – which realistically means two wins minimum in each set of five games. Consistency is key; we really have to aim for those two wins in each set. Losing four or five games off the belt will damage confidence, and we can’t really afford that with the Europa League to also contend with.
The last three games – Bournemouth and Man City at home and Leeds away – will not be easy, so let’s again assume they yield three points, giving us a bit of a safety net.
From the first set of five, we really need to beat Ipswich (A) and Fulham (H), as the remaining three – Brentford (A), Man C (A) and Arsenal (H) – will be tough. We must start well to boost confidence and ensure we are not playing catch-up from the start.
The second set is easier, with Brighton and Leeds at home and Coventry away. Chelsea (H) and Bournemouth (A) complete the set.
Building up a buffer from the second set would be useful, as the third set includes Villa (A), Liverpool (A) and Spurs (H). Therefore, we really have to win at Newcastle away and against Forest at home.
I’m betting on Hull, certainly, and Palace, probably, struggling this season, so we need to beat them at home. Everton (A), Man Utd (A) and Liverpool (H) make up the rest of the fourth set.
The promoted teams come to the rescue again in the next set with Coventry (H) and Hull (A), which is handy because we also face Chelsea (A), Spurs (A) and Villa (H).
The sixth set includes Man Utd (H) and Arsenal (A), so we will need two wins from Everton or Brentford at home and Palace away.
The final group of five might give us a chance to catch up on any earlier failings or, better still, push on again. Ipswich (H) and Newcastle (H) should give us the minimum wins we need. We also have Forest, Fulham and Brighton away.
So, even with the Europa League to contend with, a top-ten finish seems achievable, assuming we don’t lose one or more key players to injury for an extended period. A repeat of seventh place may be unrealistic, but I was overly pessimistic last season, so let’s hope it’s the same again.
We really have to beat the promoted teams both home and away and Newcastle home and away – easy! – or we will make it hard on ourselves.