Whenever I interview a trainer, invariably the same question gets asked:
“Who’s your best 2-year-old?”
We’re always looking for the next Kentucky Derby winner, the next star of the sport here in the US. And while there are two stakes on Saturday’s card at Del Mar - both of them decent betting races, too - race 7, a Maiden Special Weight for those aforementioned 2-year-olds, is the true feature on the card.
Half the field are sons of sires whose stud fees are at least $100,000; another starter was bred for a “mere” $12,500, but sold at auction for $350,000. Expectations, as the kids say, are high.
Let’s meet the field, try to pick out potential Derby-types, and place our weekly wager. If you’re wagering on Del Mar, be sure to check out AmWager! They have a deposit match for all new customers on their site.
Del Mar Saturday. Race 7. Maiden Special Weight. 5 ½ furlongs, dirt. 2-year-olds. $100,000.
1. Emancipate. 5/2. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Emancipate makes his first start for trainer Bob Baffert, the most successful modern trainer in Kentucky Derby history. He’s booked his top jockey, Juan Hernandez, a pairing which has yielded 40% winners amongst their starters. This number is, of course, incredible. He’s a son of Uncle Mo, and out of a Blame mare. He’s built for much longer distances than this, but 2-year-olds have to start somewhere. He’s following a classic Baffert workout pattern, and appears to be ready to fire on debut. Baffert’s 1st-timers have been winning at an absurd 39%.
2. Articulation. 12/1. Jockey: Ricardo Gonzalez. Trainer: Michael McCarthy.
If you’d like to know how regal this field is, Articulation is the longest-odds on the morning line, and was a $725,000 purchase in August 2025. Trainer Michael McCarthy guided Journalism through a wildly successful 3-year-old campaign, and would be an ideal conditioner for Articulation should he develop into a Derby contender. His most recent works at Del Mar have been great, and he’s more than live here. If you’re looking for a longshot in the field, he’s a great candidate.
3. Absolution. 8/1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
The “other Baffert” in the field is Absolution, a son of freshman sire Jack Christopher. His best races came sprinting, so for today’s purposes, Absolution is live; looking forward to next year, there are far fewer guarantees. Absolution joins the ranks of literally every other horse in this field as a good morning worker; I’ll play against today.
4. Icanthelpmyself. 8/1. Jockey: Armando Ayuso. Trainer: Brian Koriner.
Trainer Brian Koriner is off to a great start at this Del Mar meet, winning at a clip north of 30%. A not-so-great stat: he’s 1-for-21 with his most recent first-time starters. Today is unlikely to be the day Icanthelpmyself gets his first win, but his breeding - Mo Town on the top and Quality Road on the dam side - at least offers a chance at being a runner who can get the 10 furlongs in the Derby. Pass today, but keep an eye on him.
5. Inshallah. 2/1. Jockey: Joel Rosario. Trainer: John Sadler.
The other freshman sire in this field is the all-world Flightline, whose progeny are off to mixed results. Ownership went all in, paying $2.1M for Inshallah in May. Trainer John Sadler was Flightline’s conditioner, so he must be over the moon to be training one of his sons. The works make sense in this group, but expect the price to be much lower than one should take on any of the runners in this field. He can win here, and outside of Baffert, Sadler is the best with 1st-timers in the group.
6. Federation. 12/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Michael McCarthy.
In any other company, Federation would be short odds: high-level sire (Constitution), Hall-of-Fame connections, and a pair a speedy gate works coming in. Instead, he’s relegated to 12/1, in spite of everything on paper. His sire speaks to an ability to get more distance; the dam was sired by Midnight Lute, a back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner. It’ll be fun watching him develop, and which direction he takes trainer Michael McCarthy and his team. I think he’s live today.
7. Bid. 8/1. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
Bid is by Essential Quality, whose 2- and 3-year-old campaigns are amongst the best in recent years. He won multiple Grade 1s around two turns, and should pass all of that on to Bid. As for today, trainer Doug O’Neill has booked his top jockey in Emisael Jaramillo, and has been working him hard out of the gate to get ready for today. They’re clearly convinced they’ve got a shot against this group - and why not?
8. Domenici. 6/1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Tim Yakteen.
Trainer Tim Yakteen will send Domenici to the starting gate, a son of Preakness winner Early Voting. Yakteen has a ton of success with 2-year-olds, and has a solid first-out winning percentage, as well. Connections were willing to spend 30x the stud fee to buy this colt, so expectations are high. I think he’ll need a race, but if his work on July 12th is any indication, he belongs in this company.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
$5 Pick 3, starts Race 5 ($40): 4 / 4,6 / 1,5,6,8. Good luck!