DJ Moore Fantasy Outlook 2026: WR Looks To Rebound After Extremely Disappointing Season

It was not a good showing for DJ Moore last year. Now, he’s on a new team with a new coach and has quickly become one of the more polarizing players of the 2026 season. Will Moore find new life with the Buffalo Bills or was 2025 the start of his decline? The answer will determine whether fantasy football managers should draft the Bills new wide receiver.

Should You Draft DJ Moore in Fantasy Football?

Moore entered the NFL in 2018. While he wasn’t fantasy relevant, it was a pretty good rookie year that was more promising than not. Sure enough, he broke out as a sophomore, posting 15.4 fantasy points per game.

For the next six years, Moore was a top 36 wide receiver. He mostly averaged around 14-15 PPG outside of two outlier seasons. In 2022, he was the victim of circumstance, which resulted in a very poor 11.7 PPG. In 2023, he overcorrected by posting an elite 16.9 PPG, the best season of his career. In 2024, Moore was back to his usual solid WR2 ways at 14.0 PPG (although that was only good for a WR26 finish because scoring was so high).

Last year, though, the wheels fell off. Moore averaged 10.0 PPG, well below his career average. It was his worst season since his rookie year. But was it another blip like in 2022? The answer to that will determine whether Moore ends up being a good or bad value in 2026.

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If we look back at Moore’s 2022 season, there was no reason to really think his poor production was his fault. He still saw a 27.7% target share and and averaged 2.02 yards per route run. The issue was very clearly Justin Fields and an offense that averaged fewer than 22 pass attempts per game. There was nothing Moore could do.

In 2025, Moore was catching passes from Caleb Williams on a Chicago Bears team that went 11-6 and won the NFC North. His plays were drawn up by Ben Johnson, one of the brightest and most innovative offense minds in the game. The only real excuse was increased target competition provided by Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden III. Unfortunately, that’s just not enough of an excuse for Moore’s performance.

Traditionally in the 24-27% range, Moore’s target share plummeted to 16%. He only earned a target on 15.7% of his routes run. This was despite being on the field the most for the Bears, running a route on 90.5% of Williams’ pass plays, and being 10th in the league in total routes run.

Admittedly, Williams was not particularly accurate last season. Moore’s catchable target rate was just 65%, outside the top 70. However, that’s not enough of an excuse for his career worst 1.26 yards per route run, a stark and alarming decline from his previous norms.

One of the most predictive metrics for wide receiver production is first downs per route run.

Simply put: yikes!

Despite being the incumbent WR1, the healthiest wide receiver on Bears, and playing all 17 games, Moore managed 50 receptions for 682 yards and six touchdowns.

So, what should we expect from Moore this year? The answer depends on your reaction to last year’s objectively abysmal performance.

Moore’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value

Regardless of which side of the coin you fall on, there’s no debating the merits of Moore’s 2025 season. It was very bad. The question is why?

Any argument in favor of Moore requires excuses to be made. One such excuse is that Moore was checked out. While there are certainly clips you can find of Moore taking plays off and not going at 100% on obvious run plays, it’s hard to accept that a player playing on the best offense of his career would be checked out.

Another excuse made for Moore is the target competition. Odunze, Loveland, and Burden are all quality pass catchers. In Buffalo, he will be the clear WR1, as his top competition is Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. The former is mostly a slot guy who isn’t a true alpha. The latter is a tight end who the team has never shown an interest in using as anywhere close to a full time player.

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We can and should project Moore to lead the Bills in targets. Josh Allen is the best quarterback he’s ever played with (obviously). The Bills are consistently one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. It’s very easy to talk yourself into a Moore rebound…just like it was in 2022 when another Bears receiver changed teams into a better offense at age 29 after claims he was checked out.

Personally, I am getting 2022 Allen Robinson vibes from Moore. There are so many parallels.

Robinson wasn’t any worse in Los Angeles than he was that final year in Chicago. And that was the problem.

The argument against Moore is easy. Just look at the data. We have an age 29 year old wide receiver coming off the worst season of his career who is switching teams to a better offense with a better quarterback and lesser target competition.

We typically don’t see wide receivers truly decline until age 31/32 and the age 33 season is when the most significant decline occurs. Moore also has a skill set that should age well. As a result, he is very likely not going to be nearly as bad as ARob was in 2022 with the Rams.

With that said, when an age 29+ wide receiver shows signs of decline, we should typically believe him.

Moore is going off the board as the WR23. That’s not prohibitively expensive from a positional standpoint. But a fourth or fifth round pick is not insignificant.

I have Moore down at WR34. Unlike 2022 Robinson, I do think Moore will be worth rostering and will produce fantasy relevant numbers. However, I do not expect him to suddenly rebound into a weekly WR2.

Moore will be the Bills WR1. He will lead the team in targets. But the gap between him and Shakir won’t be as large as their ADPs suggest. The Bills are not a high-volume passing offense. Allen averaged just 28.75 pass attempts per game last season (excluding Week 18 when he played one snap to preserve his games started streak).

Peak Allen averaged 35+ pass attempts per game. Over the past two seasons under Joe Brady, he’s been under 29.0 both times. Even if Moore is able to command a 25% target share, his absolute ceiling in terms of total volume is around 120 targets. Using his career 62.2% catch rate, that would get him around 75 receptions. Using his career 13.5 yards per reception, that puts him just over 1,000 yards. Let’s give him six touchdowns.

The above stat line comes out to around 12.5 PPG and that is in what I consider to be close to a best case scenario. Historically, 12.5 PPG is roughly in the WR30-36 range, which would be a negative return on investment.

What if Moore isn’t as much of an alpha? What if his target share is only 22%? What if his catch rate declines? What if his yards per reception drops or he only scores four touchdowns? Then we’re looking at a player who is more in the 10-11 PPG range, which is barely startable in fantasy. Suffice it to say I am not interested in Moore this season.

Moore’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value

Moore is currently WR42 in our consensus dynasty rankings. He most certainly won’t be there in 2027.

The 2026 season is an inflection point for Moore’s career. He will be 30 years old next year. A bounce back year and Moore could still perform at a reasonable level for another 2-3 years. Another disappointing campaign and his disastrous 2025 will be cemented as the start of his decline, which would send Moore’s dynasty value tumbling even further.

If you believe in Moore, he should be relatively easy to acquire as a WR4. If you are fading Moore, now is the time to cash out while he has the specter of the unknown propping up his value.

This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.