President Trump’s return to office was made possible in part because of increasing support from three traditionally Democratic groups: Hispanic voters (41% supported Trump, a 6-point improvement from 2020), young voters (46%, up 10 points) and Black voters (15%, up 7 points).
There isn’t much evidence that Democrats have figured out how to talk to these voters again, but for two of the three groups, Trump’s declining approval rating is doing the job for them.
In a recent Marquette survey, two-thirds of young Americans said they disapproved of Trump, and 56% said they would support the Democratic candidate in their district. Hispanics were also unhappy with the president: 71% disapproved of his performance and 56% said they’ll support a Democrat this November.
Black voters haven’t come all the way home yet. One in five Black Americans approves of Trump, but only 69% say they’ll support a Democrat in their district. That’s 21 points below Biden’s 2020 share of the Black vote, when he thanked those voters for delivering his victory.
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Democratic candidates in three battleground states are also staring at Black voter erosion, but they’ve found ways to stem the losses. In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff is running 10 points behind Biden’s 2020 support among Black voters. In North Carolina, it’s 7 points. In Texas, State Rep. James Talarico is running about even with Black voters over that period.
It’s a different story in Michigan. According to a new Fox News poll, 75% of Black voters support newly minted Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. That’s down 18 points from their support for Biden.
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El-Sayed’s far-left platform is probably playing a role in Black voters’ skepticism. In the Marquette survey, just 36% of Black Americans said they had a favorable view of the Democratic Socialists of America.
(Bear in mind that because Black voters are a small group in most surveys, these results have large margins of error.)
You can also see it in the maps from three recent Democratic primaries: El-Sayed did poorly in Black-majority areas like Detroit, while Wisconsin democratic socialist Francesca Hong underperformed in Milwaukee, another city with a high Black population.
Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a card-carrying member of the DSA, also struggled with Black voters in New York City last year. That might explain why he’s been on a "Black media blitz" to defend some of his most controversial ideas.
It might be working: Mamdani’s favorability among New Yorkers sat at 69% in a Siena poll released last week.
In any case, the clock is ticking for the far-left. Michigan starts absentee voting on September 24. The state’s Senate race moves to toss-up in this edition of the Fox News Power Rankings, along with another big-name state. Three gubernatorial races also just got more competitive.
Senate: Two more states become toss-ups, giving both parties a chance at a landslide
The latest Senate forecast includes six states where neither Democrats nor Republicans have an edge. That could make for an extraordinary election night. In one scenario, the Democrats not only flip the Senate, but end up with 53 seats. In another, Republicans hold on to the Senate with no net loss of seats.
The GOP has a better chance at flipping Michigan than it did a week ago. In last week’s Fox survey, former Rep. Mike Rogers had the support of 51% of voters to El-Sayed’s 47%, within the margin of error.
Republicans are united in their support for Rogers, a strong and seasoned campaigner. With a quarter of Black voters not backing El-Sayed, his coalition isn’t complete. The fundamentals still favor the Democrats, but in what is certain to be a high-turnout election, El-Sayed will need every Democrat to show up. This race is now a toss-up.
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At the same time, the national environment hasn’t changed. Trump’s overall approval rating is stuck in the 30s; his ratings on the economy and Iran are often lower. Gas prices have proven even tougher to sell: only 21% of Americans recently said they approved of Trump when asked specifically about that issue.
That has benefited Talarico, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas, who has enjoyed some robust polling results this summer. He’s averaging 48% in three recent polls, hitting 51% in Fox’s survey, while his opponent, Ken Paxton, averages 46%.
Paxton’s history of legal and personal issues is likely playing a role in that latter figure, and while Talarico must defend a history of "woke" comments, voters say they’re less worried about those. They could make the difference in an election year that’s already favorable to Democrats. Texas is also a toss-up.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer raised some eyebrows last week when he said Democrats were expanding the Senate map to include Kansas (Trump +16 in 2024) and Mississippi (Trump +23).
The comment came shortly after El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan, and with parts of the party establishment balking at that win, Schumer may just be giving donors options.
Still, Kansas wouldn’t be out of reach on an outstanding night for Democrats. Megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton is already a well-funded Democratic challenger; he faces incumbent GOP Sen. Roger Marshall. This race moves to Likely R.
Governor: Texas, Alaska, and Minnesota are all in play
Based on polls alone, Texas’ gubernatorial race looks remarkably similar to the Senate. In the same three polls this summer, incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott has the support of 49% of voters, with Democrat Gina Hinojosa sitting at 46%.
There’s more to the story than that. When Republican voters show up in Texas, they easily outnumber Democrats, and while Paxton appears not to be helping this ticket, Abbott’s fundraising prowess and experience in close races should keep the candidates apart when the votes are tallied.
Even as Republicans maintain a lead, though, this race is clearly competitive. It moves from Solid R to Likely R.
Alaska voters will head to the polls tonight for their top-four primaries, which will narrow the field but won’t tell us a whole lot more. This year’s gubernatorial election features 17 candidates, none of whom is an incumbent, but one might seem that way: Tom Begich, a former Democratic legislator with three relatives who have served in the U.S. House or Senate.
It’s a difficult race to predict, but between former Rep. Mary Peltola’s Senate push and Begich’s name on the ballot, it’s going to be competitive. It moves from Likely R to Lean R.
Finally, the Republican establishment had a good week in Minnesota, where popular former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya won the party’s nomination for Senate, and state House Speaker Lisa Demuth became the party’s gubernatorial nominee.
Demuth will face Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar this November, a formidable opponent who has criticized the state’s handling of fraud involving government programs.
But that issue gives the GOP a rare opening in this blue-leaning state, and with this slate of candidates, the party is likely to invest here. Minnesota’s gubernatorial race moves from Solid D to Likely D.
