This is the year!…said fantasy football managers for the fourth consecutive year. Garrett Wilson has all the talent in the world, right? It’s just the New York Jets offense holding him back. Or the coaching staff. Or the injuries. This time, it will be different. Should fantasy managers buy into Wilson in 2026?
Should You Draft Garrett Wilson in Fantasy Football?
Strap in, folks. This is an important one. Outside of his rookie season, Wilson has been overvalued every year of his career. And let’s not pretend like that rookie season was all that impressive from a fantasy standpoint. He only averaged 12.7 fantasy points per game. Admittedly, he did post 17+ PPG in games started by not Zach Wilson that year. So, it’s pretty clear where the upside outlook comes from.
Here’s the problem: 2023, 2024, and 2025. The 2023 inflated ADP made sense. Talented top-10 NFL Draft pick coming off a strong close to his rookie season. That type of profile typically hits. It didn’t. Wilson averaged 12.5 PPG.
There were extenuating circumstances, though. The Jets’ offense was a mess. Aaron Rodgers got hurt four plays into the game. We gave Wilson a mulligan. In 2024, he had the exact same price as the year prior. This time, he would have his season with a healthy Rodgers and we’d get the breakout.
START PREPARING:PFN’s Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator
It was better. Wilson averaged 14.8 PPG. He also caught 101 passes for 1,104 yards and seven touchdowns. That’s a really good year. But in 2025, the Jets are starting Justin Fields. We can’t quite project Wilson to be as good. So, his price dipped a bit, but was still firmly inside the top four rounds. He’s simply too talented, right?
Injuries obviously played a role last year, limiting Wilson to just seven games. But he only averaged 14.2 PPG across those contests. That’s now three consecutive underwhelming seasons.
Last year, Wilson saw an absurd 34.3% target share and was targeted on 26.2% of his routes run. It’s really not possible for his usage to get any better. It all comes down to efficiency.
Geno Smith will provide an upgrade over the carousel of backups the Jets deployed last season. Wilson’s 1.76 yards per route run is more of a product of his offense than his own play. Nevertheless, at what point do we ask the question of Wilson himself? Is he as good as we thought?
Wilson’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
It is now time for some very uncomfortable data. We are now entering year five of Wilson’s career, and he hasn’t posted a single WR1-caliber season (16+ PPG). Historically, if a wide receiver does not post a WR1 season within his first four years, he’s never going to do it.
Since 2000, just 18 wide receivers have hit 16+ PPG for the first time in year five or later. Of those 18 wide receivers, five of them were Round 1 selections in the NFL Draft. Four of those five had a season over 15 PPG at least once during their first four years. Wilson has not.
MORE: Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: How to Win Your League After Selecting Bijan Robinson First Overall
If Wilson were to suddenly post a 16.0 PPG season in 2026 or later, he would not just be a late bloomer; he would be one of the most significant outliers in the history of fantasy football. He would be one of just two players in over two decades’ worth of data to lack a 15.0 PPG season in his first four years and still go on to the WR1-caliber tier as a veteran. Relying on such a historic anomaly is a risky bet for any fantasy manager to make.
On the positive side, Wilson’s ADP is around WR19. He doesn’t need to hit 16 PPG to be worth his cost in fantasy drafts. The problem with targeting him, though, is we’re not trying to hit par. We want players who outperform their ADP expectation.
Just about every wide receiver going around Wilson in fantasy drafts doesn’t have decades of historical data working against them. That’s not to say they are safer picks or even have more upside. It’s as simple as we don’t have to say “Yeah, but…” to explain why they could post a WR1 season. With Wilson, we do.
Even if you’re not interested in this data, the situation isn’t exactly conducive to success. Smith is coming off a truly dreadful season that got him benched in Las Vegas. Yes, the coaching staff and offensive weapons beyond Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty were a huge problem. But are we really about to put all of our Wilson eggs in the Geno Smith basket to unlock his upside?
TRADE NOW:PFN’s Dynasty Trade Calculator
Plus, the Jets aren’t exactly a team with a great coaching staff either. Aaron Glenn is widely viewed as the worst head coach in the league, with many shocked he was even brought back. It is highly likely he won’t be coaching the team by the end of November.
The Jets added two more offensive weapons in Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq. Wilson is the clear alpha, but the ancillary pieces are very clearly better than they were last year. His target share is probably going to drop a few percentage points.
Finally, we have the scoring issue. Touchdowns are everything in fantasy football. How many can we really expect Wilson to score? His aforementioned 2024 season feels like his ceiling. Is that the type of player you want to draft as your WR2?
I have Wilson as my WR23, which is behind consensus. I cannot endorse drafting him unless he falls well below ADP.
Wilson’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
I could’ve easily saved the historical analysis for this section because it applies just the same. Wilson is still just 26 years old. There’s plenty of time for him to figure it out. History just suggests it would’ve happened already.
STAY UPDATED:PFN’s Fantasy News Tracker
Perhaps the Jets end up with a stud rookie quarterback in 2027. Maybe we do get the Wilson breakout. He still has a good 5-7 years left where we can expect peak production. The question fantasy managers need to ask themselves is what that peak production actually looks like.
Wilson is WR16 in our consensus dynasty rankings. That’s above where he’s ever finished in a single season. The long-term outlook among the fantasy community remains high. Accordingly, this may be the time to cash out because of one more disappointing season, and the goodwill is going to evaporate.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.