In 2022, I was pretty sure Iga Swiatek was going to dominate women’s tennis for the next decade. And then she kind of just … didn’t. At least not yet.
Part of that skid is very real. Swiatek captured only one ATP-1000 level event in 2025 and zero (so far) in 2026 after winning four such tournaments in 2024. She won Wimbledon in 2025, but after a surprising loss at the French Open, where she was the three-time defending champion, she is on the verge of her first empty year at Grand Slams since 2021.
But part of that skid was an error in my own judgment. Because Swiatek looked unbeatable and was only 21 years old, I incorrectly assumed she would just continue getting better while everyone else was left in the dust. And she has improved her game, but so has everyone else. Put simply, women’s tennis isn’t the land of individual dominance and two-person rivalries it used to be with the Williams sisters, with Steffi Graf and Monica Seles or with Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova. I incorrectly assigned Swiatek (and Aryna Sabalenka) a role that she just hasn’t played; the field is too good.
Modern women’s tennis is the age of parity. Since Serena Williams won her final Grand Slam in 2017, there have been 20 different champions in 34 available tournaments. That’s a shocking level of competition at the highest level, and 2026 has already seen two new champions: Linda Noskova and Mirra Andreeva. It’s frankly a very exciting time to watch, if a bit chaotic — new champions pop out of nowhere while the “established” players fight to even be considered established. Swiatek has very much fallen from that top echelon, all the way down to number eight in the WTA rankings.
Despite my initially flawed perception of Swiatek, she really has never dominated any surface other than clay. In addition to four French Opens, she has one US Open, one Wimbledon, and no Australian Open titles to her name. There is a long and distinguished history of clay court specialists in tennis, but she actually hasn’t even won a clay court title since 2024. Has Swiatek just been completely left behind?
That might be a touch dramatic. She’s still a great player, capable of winning any tournament she enters, but her high-spin ball-striking approach has definitely fallen out of fashion. It’s part of what made her so consistent on clay, but that very stylistic difference makes her vulnerable to the power-hitting flat shots that have come to dominate women’s tennis. Strangely, Swiatek’s “consistent” style may have made her less consistent.
Sure, in any one single match, spinning in ground strokes may result in fewer unforced errors than an opponent whaling on the ball, but over the course of a multi-week tournament? That style might get overwhelmed. Swiatek has top-level shots and elite court movement, but she may not be able to deal with a power player who hits a statistically unlikely number of winners in a single, three-set match.
Another problem for Swiatek is that, among top-tier players, she’s never been a truly elite server. She’s consistently in the top 20 for most serving stats, but it’s just not the same kind of offensive weapon that it is for other players. She is, however, a dominant return player who, even in a down 2026, tops the leaderboard in break percentage. But would you rather have the initiative as a next-level service player or have to respond as a great returner?
Swiatek must find a way to take back the initiative in a sport that feels like it’s somewhat figured her out. She’s no longer a young phenom, and several players ranked higher than her (Noskova, Andreeva and Coco Gauff) are also younger. She has a game that should age rather well, but she will have to prove she can make her style work against the current field of top players. Otherwise, the promise of peak Swiatek may fall by the wayside.