How often do Community Shield winners win the next Premier League? 'Curse' of EPL curtain-raiser explored

How often do Community Shield winners win the next Premier League? 'Curse' of EPL curtain-raiser explored originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Premier League champions Arsenal face FA Cup winners Manchester City in Sunday's Community Shield.

The traditional curtain-raiser for the English top-flight season has arguably assumed a little more importance in the modern era, with coaches such as Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho insisting on counting it as a notable honour in the European super cup tradition.

But, as Mikel Arteta's Gunners and City – under new boss Enzo Maresca – target the season's first piece of silverware, it might be worth asking whether it's worth the hassle.

Why? Well, a Community Shield triumph does not necessarily mean a successful campaign is on the way.

MORE: Premier League Odds & Predictions 2026/27: Expert Betting Tips

How often do Community Shield winners win the next Premier League?

Not very often. In the Premier League era, which began in 1992/93, only eight of the 34 Community Shield winners have gone on to win the Premier League title in the subsequent season. Four of these happened in consecutive years between 2007/08 and 2010/11. The winners of the Community Shield have finished as Premier League runners-up on 12 occasions.

None of the previous six Community Shield victors have won the Premier League, with Manchester City the most recent club to overcome this apparent curse in 2018/19.

Prior to that, Manchester United claimed the Community Shield and then the league title in 2010/11, meaning only one of the past 15 winners has gone on to lift the Premier League.

Indeed, it's slightly more common for the losers of the Community Shield to win the title, with this having happened 10 times in the Premier League. This includes four of the past seven beaten Community Shield participants, including City for three seasons in a row between 2021/22 and 2023/24.

(Getty Images)

When Pep Guardiola claimed his third Community Shield in 2024 thanks to a penalty shootout win over Manchester United, City's form fell away drastically that winter. After winning a record four Premier League titles in a row, they finished 2024/25 13 points behind Premier League winners Liverpool.

Crystal Palace's 15th-place finish after winning the Community Shield at Liverpool's expense last season was the lowest finish since Leeds came 17th with silverware in tow in the inaugural Premier League season.

All-time Community Shield winners and next Premier League finish