After two years of flirting, does the College Football Playoff court Illinois football in 2026?
Some may call this a best-case scenario; some may call it a pipe dream. But call it highly possible! Given the history of the CFP, 10 wins is the line of demarcation. In the past couple of years of the 12-team CFP, only one team had fewer than 10 wins. That was Duke last year, the ACC champ with only 9 wins. So I feel fairly safe in saying they are an outlier. In last year’s CFP, there were only three teams with 10 wins. The Illini are projected as a middle of the pack lower top half of the league team. Do the Illini have 10 wins on the schedule?
With the non-conference schedule, Illinois should be 3-0 when they travel to Columbus to face the Ohio State Buckeyes. I am not discounting UAB, Duke and Southern Illinois, but all three games are in Champaign; Duke will be the stiffest opponent, 9-5 in the ACC last season and losers to Illinois 45-19 in Durham.
The Big Ten schedule is actually favorable to Illinois. They don’t play Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn State, or USC. They do catch top-tier Ohio State on the road and host Oregon. They also host AP preseason top 25 pick Iowa. On the road, they face Michigan St, Maryland, UCLA and Northwestern, along with home games vs. Purdue and Nebraska.
You might ask how that is favorable? Ohio State and Oregon are Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in the AP preseason poll; Iowa is 20. The rest of the schedule is either highly winnable games or Illinois should be favored to win.
Let’s take a look!
So Illinois starts conference play in Columbus where the Buckeyes will probably still be No. 1, if they don’t lose to Texas in Week 2. While I would like to see an upset here, reality will tell a different story. You hope to see a good competitive game.
The next two opponents, Purdue at home and Michigan State on the road, should be as close to a lock win as you can get. Neither team has made a significant enough improvement since last year to be a big threat.
After a week off, the Illini take on the Oregon Ducks in Champaign. The Illini lost to the Ducks in 2024 (38-9) in Eugene. The Ducks still have one of the nation’s top QBs in Dante Moore. This will likely spoil a perfect home record for 2026.
That is 2 highly likely losses, meaning Illinois at 5-2 will have to win 5 straight games.
That all starts at Maryland. The Terps are classified in the same group as Purdue and Sparty. Not much of a challenge.
Now the next four games are where the challenge is.
The Illini have won three out of the last four contests against Nebraska, including an OT win in Lincoln in 2024. Counting on the home-cooking factor, you have to give the Illini the edge.
Then it is off to Tinseltown for a date with UCLA. The Illini last faced the Bruins in 2011, when Nathan Scheelhaase and Whitney Mercilus led the Illini to a 20-14 win in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. This year’s squad should be an improvement over last season’s DeShaun Foster debacle. They have a number of new faces, including new Coach Bob Chesney (formerly of James Madison), who has brought some of his JM Dukes with him. This game is late in the season, which gives UCLA time to gel. I think the Illini have the better talent to get this win.
The last two will be tough.
Iowa at home is the next contest. As mentioned earlier, preseason rankings have the Hawkeyes at No. 20. They have beaten the Illini in 6 out of the last 7 games; the lone Illini win was a 9-6 win in Champaign in 2022! This is a legitimate 50/50 toss-up and could put Illinois in the playoff picture or knock them out.
Northwestern in Evanston, the Wildcats are considered a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team and could give Illinois trouble. The Illini SHOULD be either 8-3, or 9-2 when they get to Evanston. A win here could cap a third straight 9-plus win season (the first in school history) and New Year’s bowl game and/or be the springboard into the CFP!
To sum it all up
In realistic terms, there are still some question marks about the 2026 squad: a new QB, a new offensive line, a new defensive line and LB group, along with a brand-new defensive coordinator and new scheme. While the back half of the schedule is a slew of winnable games, it also has some potential landmines too. This could be an historic season that puts Illinois squarely back on the NCAA football landscape. We could also see a bump in the road. I think a solid over-under for Illinois is 8.5 wins. And at least a New Year’s Eve bowl game.
So let’s “pack out that ball Illinois!”
Quick poll question: using my 8.5 over/under, which side are you taking over or under?
Let me know in the comments or contact me on X @tsotbgcs or my Facebook page, Talking Sports with Uncle Don!