Injuries Ruined Austin Riley’s Rise to Superstardom

Baseball is a game of ups and downs. Things were trending up for Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley, who signed the largest contract in Braves history on Aug. 1, 2022.

On that day, Riley signed a 10-year, $212 million extension with Atlanta through the 2032 season. In 2021 and 2022, Riley was considered one of the best third basemen in all of baseball. He slashed .288/.358/.529 with 71 home runs, 200 RBIs and a 137 OPS+.

At just 25, Riley was destined to be a superstar. However, a combination of injuries and poor performance has kept him well below his standards. From 2021-2023, Riley played in 478 games. In those seasons, he combined for 18.8 WAR, made the All-Star team twice and finished top 10 in MVP voting in all three seasons.

Over the next three seasons, Riley has played in only 329 games. He’s only combined for 5.4 WAR and hasn’t made an All-Star team since 2023. At one point, Riley was a consistent MVP candidate. Unfortunately, his fall has left fans with more questions than answers.

Austin Riley’s Early Career Struggles

During his rookie season in 2019, Austin Riley played 57 games in left field—a position he hasn’t played since. Atlanta did sign former MVP Josh Donaldson to a one-year contract ahead of the 2019 season. That season, Donaldson had a .900 OPS and finished the season with 5.3 bWAR, good enough to finish 11th in NL MVP voting.

Riley’s season didn’t go as well, as he posted an 86 OPS+ and accumulated -0.1 WAR in 80 games. He was ultimately left off the postseason roster in 2019, but the best was yet to come in Riley’s career.

The 2020 season was even worse for Riley. In a shortened 60-game season, he posted -0.4 bWAR in 51 games and once again had an 86 OPS+. Moreover, his defense was particularly great, as he had -5 outs above average (OAA) in his first season at 3B. The lights were too bright in his first postseason as well. Riley posted a .489 OPS as the Braves fell one game short of the World Series in 2020.

Austin Riley Becomes a Hitting Machine

He started to find his footing in 2021. He went from a below-replacement-level player to an MVP candidate. Among Atlanta players that year, Riley ranked third on the team in OPS+ (135) and led the team in home runs (33) and RBIs (107). His health was a huge reason why the Braves eventually won the World Series, as he played 160 games—one of two players (Dansby Swanson) on the team to do so.

Riley wasn’t an All-Star in 2021, but would be in 2022 and 2023. His power was on full display as he combined to hit 75 home runs during those two seasons. He also posted the highest walk rates of his career in those two seasons. He walked over 8% of the time in 2022 and 2023, the only seasons his rate was that high.

Ultimately, Riley turned into one of the best power-hitting players in the league. In 2023, Atlanta tied an MLB record as they hit 307 home runs as a team. Riley accounted for 37 home runs, as he was one of five Braves to hit at least 30 home runs that season. At just 26 years old, Riley was destined to be at the core of what could have been a dynasty in Atlanta.

Injuries Halted Austin Riley’s Momentum

During the first 82 games of the 2024 season, Riley hit 12 home runs. However, he also struck out 87 times in 311 at-bats. His strikeout rate jumped to 28%, the highest mark since his rookie season in 2019. Unfortunately, Riley wasn’t able to get things figured out during the second half of the season.

In 28 games after the All-Star break, Riley hit 7 home runs, but his strikeout rate was still very high. He struck out 31 times in 114 at-bats and walked just six times. His season ended in Los Angeles against the Angels on Aug. 18. He was hit by a pitch and fractured his hand in the process. That was the story of the 2024 Braves at large. They snuck into the playoffs at 89-73, but injuries decimated them along the way. Only four players played in at least 130 games.

Riley turned his attention to 2025, seeking a bounce-back season. Instead, he played in only 102 games, as his season was cut short once again. In the Speedway Classic on Aug. 2, Riley went all out to tag Cincinnati Reds SS Elly De La Cruz at home plate. He reaggravated a muscle injury that forced him to have season-ending surgery. In trying to find your groove again, it can be difficult to bounce back from two consecutive season-ending injuries.

Austin Riley Stops Chasing The Past

It would be easy for Riley to get in his head about what used to work. Multiple surgeries have left him trying to recapture his old form. One positive takeaway from this season is that Riley has already played in more games than he did in 2024 and 2025. For the first time in three years, Riley is healthy enough to be Atlanta’s everyday third baseman. Even though he’s been healthy, the results haven’t shown themselves.

From March 27 to July 31, Riley had an OPS of just .636, while striking out 137 times in 395 at-bats. His struggles from the previous two seasons carried over to 2026. He was only four years into a 10-year extension, but it wasn’t looking great. However, things have turned around since the calendar flipped to August.

Since Aug. 1, his OPS is at .999, and his contact rates have improved drastically. While he may be striking out 30% of the time, his hard-hit rate is at 50% in that time frame. Riley is hitting the ball harder than before, which is resulting in a better hitting profile. It may be a handful of games, but Riley appears to be turning it around.

When asked about advice he’d been given this season, Riley said he tried not to focus on the past:

“I’ve had some surgery on my lower half. I had a hand injury. He said it’s a slippery slope chasing the past. You have to trust what your eyes see and know your swing better than anybody. It resonated with me. I try not to look into the past,” he said.

Riley has gone through a lot in the past three years, but he is still a big part of the Braves’ core. There is hope that he can return to form as he battles through the injuries that plagued him. August has been a great month for Riley as he looks to carry this momentum into October.

The post Injuries Ruined Austin Riley’s Rise to Superstardom appeared first on The Lead.