A perennial QB1 since his first full season starting in 2019, Lamar Jackson was a major disappointment last year. The Baltimore Ravens QB may be the greatest rushing quarterback of all time, but he has not been as prolific on the ground recently. At 29 years old, is Jackson beginning to slow down, or is his reduced cost a prime value opportunity?
Should You Draft Lamar Jackson in Fantasy Football?
Jackson first became a starter in 2018 when he replaced Joe Flacco midseason. In 2019, Jackson was officially handed the keys to the kingdom, and he rewarded the Ravens and fantasy managers with 28.2 fantasy points per game and an NFL MVP.
Since then, Jackson has been a sure thing in fantasy. He’s had a couple of injury hiccups, but when on the field, there was never a doubt that Jackson would produce elite QB1 numbers. From 2019-2024, Jackson never averaged fewer than 20.3 PPG in a single season. Then, 2025 happened.
Jackson dealt with injuries once again last season. The fact that he had a hamstring injury that lingered longer than expected certainly played a role. But when on the field, he wasn’t the same player. Jackson averaged 17.1 PPG, by far the lowest average of his career.
It’s pretty clear what happened. Jackson ran less. A lot less.
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Over his career, Jackson averages 56.2 rushing yards per game. The true number is even higher, as that average includes both his 2025 season and the nine games he didn’t start as a rookie. Last season, Jackson averaged just 26.8 rushing yards per game. And he didn’t make up for it with touchdowns.
There’s this perception among mobile quarterbacks that they are weapons near the goal line. That may be true, but that’s not how the Ravens use Jackson, which makes sense when you have Derrick Henry. Jackson rushed for two touchdowns last season. Two.
Jackson has never been the same type of prolific touchdown scorer as the likes of Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts. Even at his peak mobility, Jackson only scored seven times on the ground. But more recently, he’s not providing much more in the way of rushing production than guys we would best describe as tactical scramblers (as opposed to rushing QBs).
Percentage of fantasy points to come from rushing last season for Jackson and some comparables:
- Lamar Jackson 19%
- Justin Herbert 20.1%
- Bo Nix 20.2%
- Trevor Lawrence 24.8%
- Patrick Mahomes 25.3%
Jackson should blow all of these guys out of the water in terms of fantasy points to come from rushing. So, can we expect a reversion to the mean this season?
Jackson’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
In recent seasons, it’s been more viable to spend premium draft capital on a quarterback than during the 2010s. The rise of the mobile QB has resulted in the elite fantasy quarterbacks not only having higher ceilings, but being more predictable year over year.
Not much has changed regarding Jackson’s value at the position. He’s still the QB2 by ADP. However, the gap between him and Josh Allen is the largest it’s ever been, with nearly two full rounds separating them. Is Allen really two rounds better than Jackson?
The running back position really falls off a cliff after the fifth round. The wide receivers are still solid into the middle of drafts, but the position is very flat. There’s not really an advantage gained by taking the WR18 compared to the WR30. These factors combine to make taking someone like Jackson much more palatable.
At the same time, quarterback is as deep as ever. There are several quarterbacks with QB1 upside and even legitimate top five upside going outside the top 12. Jackson has proven top five upside, but is he seven rounds better than Jordan Love or Malik Willis? That will be up to you to decide.
Elite, difference-making QBs matter. We know Allen will provide that, but you have to pay for it. Are we ready to say that Jackson is no longer at that level after he failed to do it for literally the first time ever?
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Consider this. From Weeks 1-4, Jackson averaged 41 rushing yards per game. That’s still well below his career average, but far better than his abysmal full season average.
As a reminder, Jackson then missed the subsequent three games with a hamstring strain. He returned in Week 9 and from that point forward, averaged 20.3 rushing yards per game. That’s as good of evidence as we’re going to get that Jackson’s struggles last season were more injury-related than anything else.
There are no players going where Jackson goes in fantasy drafts that possess the weekly difference-making upside that Jackson offers. That doesn’t mean you automatically take him, but it’s certainly something to consider.
Jackson’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
As confident as we should be in Jackson rebounding this season, his dynasty value is a very different story. Jackson is 29 years old. For someone like Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes, that doesn’t mean anything. They can both play another 10 years. Can Jackson? History strongly suggests otherwise.
As an obvious caveat, the modern quarterback is significantly more mobile than historical ones. Therefore, the sample size of former rushing quarterbacks aging out of the league is rather small. But the number of them that were able to play at a high level beyond age 32/33 is literally zero.
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From Randall Cunningham to Daunte Culpepper to Donovan McNabb to Michael Vick to Cam Newton to Russell Wilson, all of them were pretty much done by age 33. There’s a very realistic chance Jackson starts to fall off within the next 3-4 years.
Now, to be fair, 3-4 years is a long time. Look at fantasy football ADP from 2022, and it will feel like a lifetime ago with how different it is. But at a position where the truly elite typically play for 15+ years, having a likely maximum of a half-decade is something to consider.
We still have Jackson at QB3 in dynasty, but if you’re not contending this year, it’s very much worth considering moving off of him before he hits age 30.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.