The college football season is getting closer and closer. Last week, we saw the first edition of the Coaches Poll released, and the AP Poll is set to be announced on Monday. In the meantime, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his final preseason SP+ rankings on Thursday, offering a glimpse at what one of the better analytics models in the industry thinks of Michigan and the rest of the country.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with SP+, Connelly describes it as “A tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking.”
Any given team is judged based on its efficiencies on offense, defense and special teams and given one uniform SP+ rating, which can be used to determine how many points that team would beat (or lose to) the “average” college football team. During the offseason, it also takes into account things like returning production and the recent history of each program.
In this edition of Connelly’s rankings, Michigan comes in at No. 15 in the country with a rating of 17.0, meaning the Wolverines would be predicted to beat the “average” team by 17 points on a neutral field if they played right now. The ranking is the same as when Michigan was featured in Connelly’s previous rankings from March, but the rating is a slight bump up from its previous mark of 16.1.
Looking around the rankings at some of Michigan’s opponents this year, Ohio State is viewed as the stiffest competition at No. 1 in the country (32.7 rating), with Oregon right behind at No. 2 (29.2 rating). Indiana is at No. 5 and Oklahoma comes in at No. 11. Those are the only four teams the Wolverines play this year that are rated higher than them, which roughly coincides with the 8-4 to 9-3 record that many have predicted this season.
The Big Ten as a whole is represented well with the aforementioned teams, as well as USC (No. 12), Penn State (No. 17), Washington (No. 18) and Iowa (No. 22) rounding out the conference in the Top-25.
Looking ahead to the start of the season, Michigan is favored by 23 points over Western Michigan while being just a 1.8-point underdog against Oklahoma if both games were to be played on a neutral field. For perspective, Vegas oddsmakers generally give about a 2.5-3.5-point baseline for home-field advantage when making their lines, but the numbers right now show that the Week 2 tilt against the Sooners should be a rather close game.