Myth busting narratives surrounding Ty Simpson’s NFL debut

It’s true that Los Angeles Rams rookie quarterback aced his first NFL game. The first round pick led LA to a victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday.

Simpson was accurate on over 90% of his throws. He demonstrated a level of mobility that is foreign to recent Rams quarterbacks. Simpson’s arm strength was a visible notch above Stetson Bennett’s, the other quarterback battling for the backup role behind Matthew Stafford.

Was the Rams’ offense with Simpson at the helm world beating? Far from it. Simpson was surrounded by players on the fringes of LA’s roster. It’s a fair critique to say the offense felt overly conservative and dink and dunk. Simpson grew more comfortable and aggressive as Saturday’s game drew on, and we can still discern some important and encouraging metrics from his performance.

Let’s bust a few myths from Simpson’s first game:

Myth #1: Simpson was captain checkdown

Verdict: Somewhat true

Simpson’s average depth of target (ADOT) came to 5.3 yards on 25 passes. That is overly conservative by NFL standards. Still, it’s significantly higher Bennett’s metric from the same game (although he was in for only two drives) of 3.2 yards.

There is some important context that is needed in order to paint the full picture. We’ll get there.

One data point that I’ll go ahead and provide: Simpson did make two throws behind the line of scrimmage that could be skewing the average on a small sample size. One play was targeted seven yards deep into the backfield.

Myth #2: Simpson was overly reliant on play action

Verdict: False

Eight of Simpson’s 25 dropbacks (32%) featured play action. Most of these came early in his appearance and it seemed to be a well-intentioned plan to help the rookie settle in. Simpson had an ADOT of 6.6 yards on play action throws with an adjusted completion rate of 87.5%. Many of these plays were rollouts, which are simplifications to reduce his reads to half the field.

The crutch was removed later in the game and the Rams leaned into more traditional drop back passing. Simpson looked comfortable and hung in the pocket to push the ball down the field.

So while the Rams used play action early and often as a tool to help the rookie find a rhythm, it wasn’t a crutch or the only reason why Simpson was successful. Myth busted.

Myth #3: Simpson didn’t have a single deep throw

Verdict: True

It’s true that Simpson did not attempt a throw longer than 20 yards down the field. However, he did complete all six of his attempts within the range of 10-19 yards. These plays went for 108 yards total and Simpson earned an “elite” PFF grade of 92.1. His average depth of target on these six throws was 14.7 yards and all were converted for first downs.

Would it be comforting to see Simpson throw and complete deep passes this preseason? Absolutely. But we know the intermediate range is an important area in Sean McVay’s offense, and Simpson performed his best in this area. It’s good enough for now. We can check the other box later.

Myth #4: Simpson didn’t use the middle of the field

Verdict: False

Nine of Simpson’s 25 passes (36%) were targeted towards the center of the field. He completed eight for 78 yards with two touchdowns. Included in this bucket, of course, is the screen pass score to running back Dean Connors.

This may be an oversimplification, but if there are three areas you can target—left, right, and center—then you’d expect a 33% equal distribution to these areas. 36% is in the ballpark. Myth busted.

Myth #5: Simpson’s play wasn’t sustainable

Verdict: False

Critics will point to the Rams’ heavy usage of play action and designed rollouts and say that the gameplan was tailored for the first-round pick to look successful. That was mostly true early, although Simpson did buck the trend later into the game.

If looking to measure and project sustainable quarterback play, the most reliable measure we have is the Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade when kept clean. Play under pressure can be volatile and vary year to year. The true test of quarterbacks comes when everything around them goes right.

And Simpson played his best football when kept clean. He earned a PFF passing grade of 80.8 and completed 20/22 passes (90.9%) for 185 yards, two scores, and a passer rating of 132.0. His ADOT was 5.4 yards and near his mark for the overall game. There were no big-time throws nor turnover-worthy plays. That clears the bar.

Simpson had a history of often generating big-time throws at Alabama. We haven’t seen that production so far in the NFL. That is the next thing we need to see from him—throwing receivers open in the deep area of the field.

There are only reasons to be encouraged about Ty Simpson’s first game in the NFL. Are there still some lingering questions that will hopefully get answered over the next two preseason games? Absolutely. But his first effort checked many of the boxes that you want to see from a rookie first-round pick. Growth is not linear. Progress was evident. Whether it will continue remains to be seen.