When I set out to write an NFL betting piece this weekend, I thought the topic would be the alt win-total market. I was going to explain what binomial distribution is and why it does not properly apply to win-total markets, creating some deviation that is worth exploiting. However, when I looked at alt win-total markets for every team in both the over and under direction, the price was a ripoff. The books have adjusted those markets, therefore the tricks and tools once used to win can no longer be reasonably good advice. I looked at my own betting log and saw that I've only placed one alt win-total bet over the last three years (and it was in the NBA). While plenty of alt win-total lines are going to win this season, honing in on the ones where the true probability exceeds the implied probability of the odds felt unreasonable given the prices. In fact, where the edges can be identified, there are probably more advantageous angles to attack with the same premise. So instead of forcing it, I shifted focus to season-long player props. Here are four season-long prop lines I really like. Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs against the Los Angeles Rams on Dec. 29, 2025, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Falcons' Bijan Robinson under 1150.5 rushing yards Placing this bet pains me a little bit. I am such a big Robinson fan, and I started the offseason pretty bullish on the Atlanta Falcons. But opinions cannot stay static and neither can wagers into the betting market. In recent weeks the Falcons have lost two premier defensive linemen and pass rushers. Jalon Walker tore his ACL early in training camp and will miss the entire season. James Pearce Jr. was suspended for eight games for violating the personal conduct policy following a domestic dispute arrest. The Falcons finished No. 2 overall in sacks last year and now will likely regress. The early preseason clips of quarterback play from the Falcons is also concerning. If the Falcons struggle to keep drives moving and struggle to get off the field defensively, Robinson dominating in a rushing game script feels doomed. Achieving 1150.5 yards means staying away from injuries and having some positive game scripts. Unfortunately, the smart choice is to fade Robinson this season. Chargers' Omarion Hampton over 925.5 rushing yards and Quentin Johnston over 5.5 receiving TDs I am going to lump the Chargers angles into one because there is correlation and overlap. I am very bullish on theChargers this season, and it starts with the health of the offensive line. Last training camp, LT Rashawn Slater tore his pectoral muscle and missed the entire year; the flip side of that is a full year to rehab and come back at full health. Joe Alt, a young star right tackle now can shift back to his preferred position and hopefully won't deal with injuries that plagued him last season. If Slater and Alt cover the ends of Justin Herbert's offensive line, this offense has the tools to be the best in the league. Former Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has taken over as offensive coordinator. Two seasons ago he led the Miami Dolphins to some impressive rankings: No. 1 in total yards, No. 1 in passing yards, No. 1 in rushing touchdowns, No. 2 in total scoring, No. 6 in total rushing yards, No. 2 in red-zone efficiency, No. 7 in third-down conversion rate and No. 1 in fewest QB hits allowed. Now he focuses solely on the offense and gets a better line, a better QB, a better RB stack and still a very talented receiving core. The case for the Hampton over is that he is the lead back with a projected 240-270 carries behind a quality offensive line. That projection might be modest for a 23-year-old RB taken with very high draft capital in a year the team intends to contend for the Super Bowl. He dealt with ankle injuries last year, but his history includes multiple 1,500-yard seasons in a shortened college career. The case for the Quentin Johnston over is that he is the main deep threat on the team and the biggest wide receiver red-zone target. He has eight touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, only playing 14 and 15 games respectively, so there is room for regression or injury coverage. The entire offense should take a leap, and Johnston is entering his fourth year in the league. I even like shooting for massive upside bets with small plays on Johnston most receiving touchdowns at 100 to 1 and looking at numbers in the market for Hampton to be the rushing TD leader.
Rams' Matthew Stafford under 3900.5 passing yards The Rams enter the 2026 NFL season as the No. 1-power-rated team with the shortest Super Bowl odds, and yet one of my favorite preseason over/under props is fading the reigning MVP. Of course the injury concerns will loom for Stafford, as he is 38 and coming off a year in which he had multiple back injections for pain despite playing every game. While it feels gross to bet into an injury being a boost to your bet, projecting injury risk simply has to be part of the handicapping process. But let's go further. The Rams under Sean McVay are known to lean heavily into the run game when they have a lead. Last season they had the fifth-most total run yards when holding a lead. Well, of course, because they often held the lead. Even on usage rate, the Rams were seventh in percentage of rushing attempts when holding a lead, and the teams they sat behind either have elite running backs or mobile quarterbacks who also count for rushing attempts. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye and Justin Herbert are all ahead on the list, and those guys ranked 1, 2, 3 and 5 in total QB rush attempts last year. If the Rams are winning, they are going to pound the rock. The Rams just drafted rookie QB Ty Simpson with their first overall pick. In games where they take a big lead, it is likely he takes over to get some game reps from Stafford and might play fourth quarters. Stafford may miss games with injury, and he may miss multiple drives because the team has a big lead. Finally, here is where my opinion and ball knowledge creep in. After watching the Rams last season, it seemed pretty obvious that once Stafford was clearly a lead candidate for MVP, the Rams' play-calling helped him stat-pad. One stat that helps demonstrate this is Stafford threw 46 touchdowns last season, and 15 of them were from the 1-yard line. He got his MVP, and hopefully the goal will be about team development and getting fully ready for a Super Bowl run, which means less stat-padding, less snaps and ultimately less yards.