The NFL's long summer of speculation ends on Thursday night. As preseason action kicks off, training camp promises to give way to real evaluation, where hidden breakouts emerge and fragile contenders face their first real stress test.
First Things First co-host Nick Wright believes he has the script for how the league will play out. On Wednesday afternoon, he revealed his team tiers entering Week 1 of the preseason, complete with plenty of surprises.
Here’s how Wright breaks down the league entering Week 1 of the preseason:
Wright made sure to highlight six teams that are 100-to-1 to make the postseason, as recent history shows someone will. However, in this context, he doesn’t believe any of the Dolphins, Browns, Cardinals, Jets, Raiders, or Titans have a chance this season.
"Almost every year, a team that has these odds and these are the six teams in the league," Wright said. "History says one of them is making the playoffs. Do you have the courage to pick it? I don’t."
Wright’s tier here is his least enthusiastic on the list. He has very little to say as the Giants, Colts, Steelers and Vikings are hit or miss and could find themselves right in the middle with eight or even nine wins.
"Seems like they could be okay," Wright said. "I don’t really have much to say about them. They could win eight or nine games. They could. I don’t know that I believe they will. They could be okay."
The NFC South sits in a tier of its own as the most unpredictable division in the league. Still, Wright is all-in on the Buccaneers, mostly because of quarterback Baker Mayfield and how hot he can get when playing with something to prove.
"I like the Bucs," Wright said. "It’s the NFC South…someone’s gonna go 8-8 and one will win it and I hope it’s Baker [Mayfield]. I hope he gets hot in the playoffs."
Not only are the Commanders and 49ers off to a rough start in camp, but Wright is now actively concerned about both organizations. It’s a concerning trend, especially considering they are already two of the oldest teams in the league.
"Laremy Tunsil’s injury is a huge deal," Wright said. "We don’t have time to do the 49ers concerning injuries. I don’t. These are older teams we talked about that we don’t love. The fact that they have one of them already has one key guy done for months and the other has a bunch of guys out intermittently. It’s just a bad part of training camp."
Among the many teams facing uncertainty this season, none fit the "boom or bust" label quite like the Houston Texans. Their fate won't just depend on overall roster depth, but the spotlight and pressure reside squarely on C.J. Stroud.
"What is the deal and who is the real C.J. Stroud and who are we going to see if they get just good production from the offense," Wright said. "That could be a Super Bowl team. The defense and DeMeco Ryans are so good."
The Lions and Packers both have a missing piece heading into the year, but Wright is particularly worried about Green Bay's defense. The lack of a clear return timeline for Micah Parsons was a major driving factor behind where he tiered the Packers.
"For the Packers, I know what I think is missing," Wright said. "Micah Parsons for maybe, it might be the first half of the season. Seems like it and that to me is concerning. I do think these two teams [Lions] could be excellent, but it feels to me right now in the middle."
The Eagles are the ultimate wild card in the league this season as they could win the Super Bowl or completely miss the playoffs. Wright remains split on the Eagles and questions whether Nick Sirianni can hold it together.
"The Eagles might be the highest ceiling, lowest floor and the best example of any team I can remember in recent memory," Wright said. "I absolutely think they could be the one seed again in the NFC. I also think they could be below .500 after Thanksgiving and we’re talking about the next head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles."
The Broncos and Jaguars were major overachievers last year, and Wright made sure to highlight that. With Bo Nix and Trevor Lawrence under center, both teams sit in a tier dedicated entirely to proving that last season wasn't a fluke.
"14 wins, 13 wins," Wright said. "Two teams with polarizing quarterbacks. Two teams that their fans feel like don’t get near enough respect they deserve coming off the year they had. Broncos obviously beat the Bills in a playoff game. Jags had a lead against the Bills in the playoffs."
"They got to prove it to us this year," Wright said.
Over the next two decades, Drake Maye and Caleb Williams could both put together Hall of Fame careers and define the league. Wright believes their careers will be forever linked, which is precisely why he placed them in the "Measuring Stick" tier to monitor their parallel trajectories.
"I say measuring sticks because I believe these two quarterbacks [Drake Maye and Caleb Williams] are going to be measured against each other their entire career," Wright said. "They both have different and excellent head coaches. I think they’re both in stable organizations."
When in doubt, Wright will always have the Chiefs in a tier of their own.
"Kansas City Chiefs," Wright said. "I understand, you’re a homer, Nick. Here’s the other thing I know. There are every other team in the league is allowed to have a bad year and move it..like the Lions they should bounce back. The Ravens, obviously they’ll bounce back."
For Wright, everything hinges on Patrick Mahomes' health. Provided Mahomes remains healthy, he views 11 wins as the absolute baseline for Kansas City, with 13 wins well within reach if everything goes right.
"I think that all unique Patrick Mahomes needs is his health, which he has right now and the stable offensive line," Wright said. "Their floor in that situation is 11 wins. You add some other elements that I think over the course of the year and it becomes a 12 or 13 win team."
Wright expressed skepticism over the coaching changes in Baltimore and Buffalo. Even though John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott had reached the end of the line, handing the reins to first-time head coaches Jesse Minter and Joe Brady created a massive layer of uncertainty.
"Two teams that said we got to move on from the coach," Wright said. "Maybe. I get it, but every coach-quarterback combo that has ever won a Super Bowl together won their first one within five years. For Harbaugh-Lamar and for Allen-McDermott it was year eight, so they were like it’s not going to happen."
There’s no decision to be made regarding the Rams and Seahawks for the top spot on his tier list.
It’s not that Wright is indecisive, but he sees both NFC West powerhouses as equal. With rumors swirling around Aaron Donald’s return making the Rams a Super Bowl favorite, and the Seahawks coming off a dominant Super Bowl victory, Wright has them deadlocked at the top.
"Apologies for not being definitive here, but the committee trademark can’t decide," Wright said. "We’ve gone back and forth between who the best team in the league is to the defending Super Bowl champions of last season. As we sit here today, I can't decide that in preseason Week 1 tiers."