Hello, friends.
Here we go. With 41 games to play, they sit two games out of the third AL wild card. This may be 2.5 games by the time you read this, depending on what happened with Texas out in Anaheim. They have a whopping five teams to pass to make it into a spot, which is their bigger problem than the raw number of games. Even still, though I know better, I can’t help but catch myself thinking, well, if they can just find a way to win six straight games again…
Today begins the ten-game stretch that will probably end the already-thin belief that the Orioles are part of this race. They start a four-game series against the Rays tonight, then they return home for three games against the Yankees and three more against the Rays. Tampa Bay has won nine straight heading into this series and they’ve taken a commanding 6.5 game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. The Yankees have a better record than either the Central or West division leaders, sitting a solid three games above the Red Sox in the wild card standings.
All of that is to say that these teams are way better than the Orioles this year. At least against the Rays, this hasn’t shown in their head-to-head games so far. The O’s have split the six games they’ve played with TB. Things have gone tougher when facing the Yankees, against whom the Orioles have gone 2-5 up to this point.
It’s not that the Orioles are incapable of playing well over these next ten games. It’s just that, based on what we’ve seen from them so far this season, they’re probably not going to play well enough to hang in there. The likelihood is that there will be boneheaded plays made on defense, some of which are being made by players who should not be playing their particular positions at the major league level. There will be bullpen meltdowns. There will be frustrating at-bats late in close games, taken by players who we all wish were doing better this year.
In the case of tonight’s game in particular, perhaps a factor will be that Chris Bassitt comes off the injured list and, despite everyone pronouncing him fixed after his surgery and a rehab assignment, he picks up right where he left off with racking up a 5+ ERA. There are so many different ways that this team has managed to underwhelm over the course of this season. It’s hard to pick just one, and often over the course of a loss, they do pick more than one.
The Orioles also win sometimes! As often as this team has made us feel like they’re a 100+ loss team, they are nowhere near that kind of pace. Roughly 48% of the time, they win every time. At least up to this point in the season. They are on pace for 78 wins. That would give them another 20 wins from here on. They probably need 26. Maybe 24 or 25 will end up doing the trick instead.
It’s a tough schedule the Orioles will face the rest of the way. The wild card contenders will not have it so hard. This is another part of why these next ten games will probably settle things decisively. Yet there is nothing wrong with hoping it will go another way. It still could.
Orioles stuff you might have missed
It’s updated prospect list season! I’d rather be more excited about the major league team than this, but you know. It’s what we’ve got.
MLB Pipeline’s new Orioles top 30 (MLB Pipeline)
Orioles On The Verge’s new Orioles top 50 (Orioles On The Verge)
Between the draft and the trade deadline activity, there are quite a few new names on the top 10 of these lists. It’s not entirely because of new arrivals, though. Pitching prospects like Joseph Dzierwa and Caden Hunter have been here all year and have broken through with their performance. The Verge list is nice because it tells you what these guys were ranked before the season.
The Orioles traded Adley Rutschman. Is Gunnar Henderson next? (The Baltimore Sun)
For me, the answer is no, I don’t think Henderson is “next.” However, if the team is again a misfire in 2027, the logic to trading him is the similar to the logic to trading Rutschman was this year. That will be even more true if prospect Wehiwa Aloy is looking like a good future big league shortstop by then.
Orioles have many holes to fill for 2027 (Baltimore Baseball)
Rich Dubroff takes stock of what might be on the offseason shopping list this season.
Now healthy, Tyler O’Neill is the Orioles’ hottest hitter (The Baltimore Banner)
Before anyone freaks out about this headline, note that the first words of the article are, “There is a long way to go before the three-year contract given to Tyler O’Neill before the 2025 season is seen in a positive light.” Getting even part of the way there is more than I had expected from O’Neill.
Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries
Today in 1998, Chris Hoiles hit two grand slams in the same game as the Orioles obliterated the then-Indians, 15-3. Hoiles was the first catcher in MLB history to ever do this, and just the ninth player at any position.
In 2009, Félix Pie hit for the cycle over the course of a 16-6 Orioles win against the Angels. Pie got the single and the triple during a nine-run seventh inning for the O’s. Angels manager Mike Scioscia was an incredible jerk about Pie celebrating the cycle after hitting the triple, for which he will remain an eternal low-level nemesis on Camden Chat.
There are a few former Orioles who were born on this day. They are: 1993 outfielder Mark Leonard, 1992 two-game pinch hitter Tommy Shields, and 1993 two-game pitcher Mike Cook. Today is Cook’s 63rd birthday, so an extra happy birthday to him.
Also born on this day in 1930 was Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver. He earned his place in Cooperstown and in Orioles history many times over. I often wonder what it must have been like to see him do his thing in his best years. On the subject of Weaver, if you haven’t yet read last year’s published biography about the legend, The Last Manager by John W. Miller, you should really get it and read it.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: O.K. Corral figure Doc Holliday (1851), actor/comedian Steve Martin (1945), basketball Hall of Famer Magic Johnson (1959), actress Halle Barry (1966), and actress Mila Kunis (1983).
On this day in history…
In 1040, Scotland’s king Duncan was killed in a battle against a cousin, Macbeth. Following the battle, Macbeth became the king. Centuries later, the playwright William Shakespeare wrote a play.
In 1900, an Eight-Nation Alliance, of which the United States was a part, occupied the city we know today as Beijing (then called Peking in the west). As part of a conflict called the Boxer Rebellion, the diplomatic section of the city was under siege since late June. Occupying the city relieved that siege.
In 1935, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act.
In 1969, the British armed forces deployed into Northern Ireland with the aim of suppressing sectarian violence that broke out days earlier. This deployment, Operation Banner, lasted for 37 years as what is now dubbed The Troubles did not turn out to be a short-term problem.
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And that’s the way it is in Birdland on August 14. Have a safe Friday. Go O’s!