Patrick Mahomes reminded everyone why he is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer in 2025, climbing back into the elite fantasy tier before his season ended due to a serious knee injury. He now enters 2026 with more uncertainty surrounding him than at any prior point in his career. The rehab reports are encouraging, though the questions extend well beyond his health. Should fantasy football managers draft Mahomes at his current price in 2026?
Should You Draft Patrick Mahomes in Fantasy Football?
Mahomes delivered a genuine bounce-back in 2025. After two straight seasons below 18.0 fantasy points per game, he vaulted back into the elite tier with a 20.4 PPG performance. On the surface, that looks like the superstar returning to form. Peek under the hood and the story gets more complicated.
A hefty 25.3% of Mahomes’ fantasy points came from his rushing production last season. His passing numbers, by contrast, were fairly pedestrian by his own lofty standards. All things being equal, projecting that rushing output to repeat would be reasonable. All things are not equal.
Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL late in the 2025 season and required surgery. He has attacked his rehab aggressively, and the expectation is that he will be ready for Week 1. Even so, asking a quarterback to run as freely as he did the year prior, in his first season back from a major knee reconstruction, is a substantial leap of faith.
START PREPARING:PFN’s Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator
Strip the rushing back down to a more realistic level and you are left with the same quarterback Mahomes was in 2023 and 2024. That version is a perfectly fine low-end QB1, but not one worth a meaningful investment of draft capital in fantasy.
Mahomes’ Redraft Fantasy Football Value
The supporting cast does him no favors. Rashee Rice is one of the least impressive WR1s in the league, a player whose production is manufactured rather than earned. Xavier Worthy has yet to prove he can be a dependable second option. Travis Kelce, meanwhile, is now 36 years old and it is more likely than not that 2026 is his final season. He’s looked noticeably slower the past couple of years.
The backfield addition matters here as well. Kansas City signed Kenneth Walker III this offseason, which points toward a more run-heavy approach. Fewer pass attempts is the last thing a quarterback needs when his passing floor is already the concern.
To Mahomes’ credit, this is the cheapest he has ever been in fantasy drafts. If any quarterback on the planet can shrug off an ACL tear in a single year, it is him. That combination is genuinely tempting. It is simply not tempting enough for me.
Here is the practical problem. Mahomes is currently going off the board ahead of the likes of Jaxson Dart and Brock Purdy, and I am not taking him over either of those two. Beyond that, I see very little separation between Mahomes and quarterbacks like Bo Nix or Kyler Murray, both of whom go much later.
My ranking puts him at QB13, right in line with his ADP. I just cannot talk myself into pushing the button on him at that price. The opportunity cost of passing on the corresponding running backs and wide receivers is not worth it.
Mahomes’ Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
Dynasty could not be more different. We have Mahomes at QB6 in our consensus rankings, and I am completely on board with that.
Everything holding him back in 2026 is a short-term problem. The injury recovery will soon be behind him. A weak collection of weapons can be upgraded in a single offseason. Neither issue says anything meaningful about the player Mahomes will be once he is fully healthy and properly supported.
TRADE NOW:PFN’s Dynasty Trade Calculator
He is only 31 years old and very likely has another decade of football ahead of him. I fully expect multiple truly elite seasons still to come. There is no version of the future where I am worried about Mahomes long term. If you can buy him at a slight discount created by this year’s uncertainty, that is a move you make without hesitation.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.