We have only about 25% of the season remaining for most teams. With 125 games done for the majority of clubs, we have fewer than 40 games for teams to figure out who is going to make the postseason. This should be a fairly tight race in both leagues, but the National League seems a bit more decided at the moment than the American League. There are only six teams within 3.5 games of a Wild Card spot, but two of them battle tonight as the Marlins take on the Phillies.
The Miami Marlins are on the outside looking in on the postseason if the playoffs started today. They are currently three games back of the Padres and Phillies, who are tied for the final two spots. Of all the teams that are not leading a division in the National League, the Marlins have the best run differential at +20 (excluding the Cubs, who own the first Wild Card spot and are +100). The Marlins played fairly consistent baseball this season in the first half, but had a really rough stretch to start the 2nd half of the year, losing nine straight. In fact, the entire second half has been streaks: 9 losses, three wins, one loss, three wins, four losses, four wins, two losses, two wins. They will need to break out a winning streak if they want to make it to the postseason.
They also need to find a way to get their starting pitching to line up well. Tonight, they send out Janson Junk to the hill in hopes that he can battle against a Cy Young contender. Junk is 6-7 for the season with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He has made 17 starts for the club this season. He has been substantially worse on the road than at home for Miami this season. On the road, he has allowed 20 earned runs compared to 23 at home. However, those 20 earned runs came in 33.2 innings compared to 54 innings of work at home. He has only faced the Phillies once this year, and he was solid against them, throwing 5.1 innings, allowing five hits and one earned run.
The Philadelphia Phillies were the hottest team in baseball at one point, but they have since cooled off. Now, they find themselves in a battle just to make the postseason. Sure, if the season ended today, they would earn the second Wild Card spot. However, I wouldn't call them a lock by any means. There are a lot of teams breathing down their neck, and the Phillies are under .500 since the All-Star Break. It is just two games, but still reflects that they haven't been playing their best baseball lately.
The good news for them is that if they do make the playoffs, they have three strong starters to line up for any series. One of them, Christopher Sanchez, takes the ball for the Phillies tonight. Sanchez has been as good as anyone in the game this season. For the year, he is 15-4 with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He also has fanned 181 batters in 155.2 innings of work. He has been extra dominant at home with a 1.41 ERA in Philadelphia. He has not faced the Marlins this year, but has held them to a .170 average over 53 at-bats in his career.
This is a game the Phillies should win, but let's be honest, me telling you to bet a -220 favorite isn't exactly a tough thing to do. It also isn't something I'd ever do. My bet is to take the Phillies on the run line. In Sanchez's 25 starts, 20 of them have been decided by at least two runs. Meaning there have been only five one run games. In games Sanchez has started and the Phillies have won, 15 of them have been by at least two runs. Only three have been by one run. Give me the Phillies on the run line tonight.
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