Pirates Paul Skenes continues to struggle, velocity at all time low

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ season is plummeting back down to earth with each passing day, with no end in sight that does not result in a crash landing. Worst of all, their ace Paul Skenes is looking worse and worse with each start.

Tuesday’s contest against the Miami Marlins was Skenes’ most recent start. Safe to say it was one of the most peculiar starts that the reigning NL Cy Young award winner has had to this point in his career. After just 65 pitches, Pirates’ Manager Don Kelly decided to pull Skenes, despite the fact that his pitcher had only allowed the Fins to score two runs.

Kelly insisted that the decision to pull Skenes was strategic in nature.

“Anybody this time of year is not injured, but guys in August aren’t 100%,” said Kelly. “It wasn’t injury-related that he came out. Just thought it gave us the best chance to win there.”

Skenes echoed that sentiment.

“Kelly walked me through everything and it all made sense,” Skenes said. “I wish I could have gone more, but you know, it kind of is what it is. You see guys yell at the manager when they’re coming out for a mound visit, and I’ve never done that. There probably will be a point in my career when I do do that, but I’m always straight with him. He’s always straight with me.”

Despite the comments that were made postgame, it’s fair to say that Skenes has not looked like himself all season. There’s been speculation that he’s pitching hurt, or that he’s fatigued from starting his season early in the World Baseball Classic. There’s been a change in his windup mechanics since the beginning of June, that directly coincides with his drop in velocity.

Skenes’ drop in velocity has been something noteworthy all season. The team and Skenes have maintained that the reason for the drop in velocity is a change in approach on the mound. Management wants Skenes to be more efficient in locating his pitches versus the alternative of giving it all he has on every pitch and sacrificing control. With that being said, it has not translated to the kind of results that fans have expected out of one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Kelly called it an adjustment for his ace.

“The league is adjusting back. Paul’s gonna have to fight to make the adjustment back to the league,” Kelly said. “Yes, the velo is down. I think command has been a bigger thing, at least for me. That could come from multiple things. Trying too hard to be too perfect. Well, you can’t just go and try to get it. So how does Paul make the adjustment back?”

Unfortunately, there have been more questions than answers. This season, Skenes has a 9-11 record and a 3.88 ERA. He’s 3-4 over his last nine starts with an uncharacteristically high 5.79 ERA in that span. The velocity has taken a steep nosedive, as his fastball averaged a career low 95.7 mph against Miami. His average velocity for his fastball this season is sitting at 96.8 mph, after averaging 98.1 mph in 2025 and 98.8 in 2024. His most recent start also saw him with a career low 12% whiff rate and he did not register a single pitch over 97 mph. This season, he has not had a pitch register at 100 mph, and has only had three pitches at 99 mph.

Skenes has recognized that his pitch volume could be attributing to some of his struggles.

“I know the innings total isn’t super high right now,” Skenes said. “I think I’ve probably had more 30- to 35-pitch innings this year than I have probably in the last two years combined, so that doesn’t help either. It’s still volume, even if it doesn’t show up on the innings total. That’s probably part of it too.”

The Pirates are quickly falling out of playoff contention. The team is 9-16 when Skenes starts. It’s becoming clear that he’s not at his best this season. The delivery has changed. The approach has changed. The velocity is down, he looks sluggish and out of shape, and the Pirates are not doing themselves any favors as the odds of making the postseason get lower and lower. Perhaps it’s time to go nuclear and just shut down Skenes for the remainder of the season to try and address the shortcomings ahead of the offseason.

Have Skenes’ best days already come and gone, or is this just a freaky Friday kind of season? Let us know what yinz think in the comments.