Ten NFL teams changed head coaches during the last cycle. That tied the record for the most in a single hiring cycle.
Since 2020, the league has averaged more than six head coaching changes per offseason. So the job comes with a short shelf life. Owners want playoff berths quickly, and they stop waiting once the losses pile up.
Five coaches enter 2026 who appear to be on the hot seat. Each one runs a team that enters the year with varying degrees of expectation. Ultimately, they are the frontrunners for who might be first fired this year.
Let’s break down which coaches are at risk and close with my prediction for which NFL head coach will be fired first this season.
Dan Quinn: Commanders defense finished last in yards allowed
Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn went 12-5 in his first season and reached the NFC Championship Game. Then came a 5-12 year in which the defense allowed the most yards per game in the league (384.3) and the sixth-most points (26.5).
Quarterback Jayden Daniels played only four full games because of injuries. Washington answered with $159 million in guaranteed free-agent money and first-year coordinators on both sides.
Neither David Blough nor Daronte Jones has called plays in the NFL. Multiple people inside the building have used the same phrase about a coach’s job security, saying “it’s a results business.” The vibes don’t seem good, and a bad start could lead to Quinn getting fired.
Todd Bowles: Buccaneers’ streak of NFC South titles ended
Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles watched a 6-2 start turn into an 8-9 finish last season. That ended a run of four straight NFC South titles.
Bowles is 35-33 in Tampa Bay with one playoff win in four seasons. He lost wide receiver Mike Evans and linebacker Lavonte David this offseason and handed the offense to new coordinator Zac Robinson.
The defense ranked 22nd in coverage grade and tied for 20th in explosive pass plays allowed. Tampa Bay spent its first two picks on defense, taking Rueben Bain Jr. and Josiah Trotter to try to patch up what has been a struggling defense over the years.
Zac Taylor: Bengals have not made the playoffs since 2022
Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has missed the postseason for three straight years. Last season was the first losing year of quarterback Joe Burrow’s career outside his rookie season.
Cincinnati added DT Dexter Lawrence and drafted DE Cashius Howell 41st overall to bolster the team’s defensive front.
Taylor called it the best defensive line he has coached in Cincinnati, saying, “Obviously, we have high-end talent, but I think top to bottom overall, the depth is something that you’re really excited about.”
Burrow has said this is the best team he has been part of in the NFL. This team might be setting the bar too high.
Aaron Glenn: Jets in a perpetual rebuild
New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn had the worst first season of any coach in team history. New York went 3-14 and became the first team since the 1987 Atlanta Falcons to finish last in points differential, yards differential and turnover differential.
The Jets did not record a single interception. Glenn replaced half his assistants, bringing in Frank Reich to run the offense.
He opened camp without ceremony, saying, “So no slogans, no hype speeches.” Linebacker Demario Davis backed him, saying, “You have 90 men in that locker room who will run through a wall for him.”
Shane Steichen: Colts will be first to fire head coach in 2026
Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen has the schedule working against him. Indianapolis went 8-9 last season after sitting at 8-2, missing the playoffs for a fifth straight year.
Steichen is 25-26 with no postseason appearances. The Colts open against Baltimore at home, then travel to Kansas City, host Houston, play Washington in London, then go to Pittsburgh.
The bye does not come until Week 13, so Indianapolis plays 12 straight games to start the season.
Carlie Irsay-Gordon already set the terms in January, saying, “We have been very clear with Chris and Shane that giving them another opportunity means that the sense of urgency for them to deliver and perform has never been higher.”
She repeated it at camp, saying, “I know and believe that on our roster and in our organization we have everything we need this year to get where we need to go.”
This franchise fired Frank Reich on November 7, 2022, one day after a bad offensive showing dropped it to 3-5-1.
The Colts play at Houston on Thursday night in Week 11. That stretch is where the NFL’s first firing could come.
— Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories with The Big Lead Newsletter —