Last September, Quentin Johnston seemed to be taking a huge step forward in his third season. Fantasy football managers were winning matchups on the back of his 15+ PPR points and he appeared to be the alpha of this developing offense. He, however, limped to the finish line and gave us a near replica of his 2024 stat line.
Is statistical growth to be expected from the former Horned Frog, or is another hit-and-miss season the most likely outcome for QJ?
Should You Draft Quentin Johnston in Fantasy Football?
Johnston’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
We were so close. So, so close.
Johnston scored twice in the season opener in São Paulo and cleared 85 yards or scored in four of his five games after that. Drafted between Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zay Flowers in 2023, making good on that draft capital seemed like an uphill battle entering last season—but we finally had proof of concept over a decent sample size, with him leading an offense moving in a direction we liked.
Until we didn’t.
Johnston posted just a pair of top-20 finishes in the second half of last season, and both arrived long after you had lost faith in him. There was a week where he turned 10 targets into just 42 yards, and seven days later, he was held off the stat sheet altogether.
Regression to the mean hit like a ton of bricks. We left 2025 with the exact same baseline expectation for him that we entered with, and that is simply not enough to bank on.
He turns 25 in September, making it dangerous to assume his developmental window has slammed shut; however, with 52.2% of his career games resulting in a single-digit PPR point total, it is hard to get too excited.
Factor in that he has just as many career games with fewer than two PPR points as he does with 16+ (six apiece), and investing in him over any of the primary rookie WRs—or options like Josh Downs and Jayden Reed, who watched teammates vacate targets right in front of them—becomes an even tougher sell.
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The idea of betting on a 28-year-old Justin Herbert feels comfortable. It feels like a reasonable gamble in the middle rounds, and I understand the logic of talking yourself into Johnston’s sporadic profile. Still, it is the opportunity cost hurdle that I cannot clear. The wide receiver position is as deep as it has ever been, which actively devalues players who struggle to offer consistent week-to-week production, no matter how tantalizing their single-game ceiling might be.
Johnston’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
The Bolts ranked fourth in red-zone dropback rate a season ago. With Herbert locked in under center for the foreseeable future, it is easy to project this as an offense on the rise.
In theory, that should boost Johnston’s long-term outlook. It does—but only so much.
Ladd McConkey will turn 25 this fall, Tre’ Harris was a second-round pick in 2025, and Oronde Gadsden showed genuine promise entering his age-23 season. This offense is not short on young potential at the pass-catching spots, and that doesn’t even account for do-it-all running back Omarion Hampton, who was pacing for 60 catches before injuries derailed his rookie campaign.
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We know the best is yet to come for this Los Angeles team, but we cannot say that with any real confidence regarding Johnston. That rightfully labels him as more of an accent piece on a dynasty roster than a foundational cornerstone.
Dynasty rosters are deep, and leagues are heavily driven by wide receiver production. In that vein, stashing a player of this archetype is sharp; you just have to be careful about hoarding too many lottery tickets with ranges of outcomes this wide.
Also Read: Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: How to Win Your League After Selecting Bijan Robinson First Overall
Pick up shares of Johnston at a discount when the opportunity presents itself, or strike if a buy-low window opens following a quiet stretch of games. He is a talented receiver trapped in frustrating production patterns, and that is likely what he will continue to be for the next several seasons.
What does it take to trade for him? Our FREE Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer can help you sift through the specifics and craft a deal that works for all parties.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.