And so it begins.
Rugby titans South Africa and New Zealand have finally arrived at their long-awaited test series, the culmination of the first full-size tour between them in 30 years.
Both teams just need an injury niggle or two to clear up before they run out on Saturday in the high veld citadel of Ellis Park in Johannesburg.
The odds favor the undisputed two-time world champion Springboks in their first four-test series with the No. 2-ranked All Blacks since 1976.
As Springboks coach or director for eight years, Rassie Erasmus has an 8-6 record against New Zealand, with one draw. It goes against historical records. The All Blacks lead the head to head by 20 wins primarily because the Springboks find it harder to win in New Zealand.
Erasmus resurrected the Boks from a 57-0 humiliation by the All Blacks in 2017 to replace their greatest rival as rugby's benchmark. They have won the last two World Cups, including the 2023 final against New Zealand by 12-11.
Erasmus embraces young and uncapped talent, and often doesn't pick his best side. But the Boks absolutely trust the innovator of the Bomb Squad — a bench stacked with forwards — and hybrid player. No hole is deep enough: They overcame red cards to beat France and Italy (twice) last year. Erasmus has at least 15 double World Cup winners believing they could reach the World Cup next year in Australia.
He and New Zealand counterpart Dave Rennie go back a decade, when Erasmus' Munster met Rennie's Glasgow. Their paths crossed again when Rennie coached Australia from 2020-22.
“He's a coach who can get fire into players,” Erasmus said of Rennie. “He makes it physical.”
Rennie took charge of the All Blacks only in June after winning the Japanese league. He's had limited opportunities to develop combinations but lifted New Zealand morale. They beat France, Italy and Ireland in the Nations Championship in July and used out-of-season South African clubs the Stormers, Sharks and Bulls to get guys up to speed this month.
Rennie said he knows his best test XV and was sorting out the backups. But while Rennie is deciding who can step up, Erasmus is choosing who to leave out.
Thanks to squad depth that is the envy of international rugby, Erasmus has treated the season so far like a World Cup pool stage. In the Nations Championship he twice made 10 changes, disrupted cohesion, and the Springboks still put 40-plus on England, Scotland and Wales. There's always one tricky pool game and they got over that hump in Buenos Aires 17-10. The New Zealand tests are the playoffs.
Ex-All Black helping Springboks attack
In a grueling schedule of four tests on four successive Saturdays in two countries — the last test is across the Atlantic in Baltimore — injuries are a certainty. Rennie expects the tests to grind up more than 30 players in his 44-man squad. He's already had to replace four, two of them test players.
Erasmus starts confident in his squad. They proved their mettle in the previous matchup with New Zealand in Wellington last September. After a narrow loss at New Zealand's Eden Park fortress, he changed seven of the starting XV, was forced to make four injury replacements in the first half, and watched his youngish side destroy the All Blacks by an unprecedented 43-10.
That launched their uninterrupted 12-test winning streak, their longest run in 18 years.
South Africa's traditional DNA is a physically punishing forward pack directed by kick-first halves. But a team that has produced genius backs such as Bennie Osler, Danie Craven, Danie Gerber and Ray Mordt has been evolving its attack, propelled in 2024 by hiring former All Black Tony Brown as the attack coach. The Springboks counterattack more often and score from less phases. Brown has done such a good job that New Zealand has contracted him from 2028.
New Zealand has traditionally been smaller in size than South Africa but compensated with swift play and swifter thinking. Assistant coach Tana Umaga described playing South Africa as “a relentless wave of a big bang coming at you.”
It always starts up front. New Zealand won its only series in South Africa in 1996 on the back of one of the all-time great packs featuring Sean Fitzpatrick, Olo Brown, Michael Jones and Zinzan Brooke.
The current All Blacks scrum and set-piece isn't in that class and former South Africa coach Heyneke Meyer predicts it will be New Zealand’s undoing.
“If you don't have a good set-piece you're in trouble. And we've got an unbelievable set-piece,” Meyer told the Behind the Ruck podcast. “So, it will be close, but at home you have to back the Springboks.”
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