Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has a strong track record in free agency, with the 2025 class an exception to the rule.
Xavier McKinney is one of the best examples of Green Bay hitting big on a free agent coming off their rookie contract, although he was not exactly a hidden gem.
The Packers got exactly what they were hoping for when they signed McKinney to a four-year, $67 million deal two years ago, and they could take the chance to double down by extending him early.
His contract was already restructured this offseason to create more cap room in 2026, taking his cap hit for 2027 – the final year of his deal – up to $24.8 million.
Green Bay is projected to be less than $200,000 under the estimated 2027 salary cap. They will likely roll over a significant amount from this year, as they are currently $27.9 million under the 2026 cap.
Still, they could open up more room by extending McKinney and lowering his cap hit for next year in the process.
McKinney’s impact on the Packers defense has been undeniable, and he has also become one of the team’s most important leaders.
Crucially from a business standpoint, he only just turned 27 years old. If he plays out the remaining two years of his deal and hits free agency again, he will still only be 29.
McKinney would likely be open to an early extension on the basis that his contract has now fallen behind some others at the safety position. His $16.75 million AAV now ranks seventh in the NFL, with Derwin James representing the top of the market at $25.2 million.
Even if Green Bay made McKinney the highest paid safety in the league, they could cut down his 2027 cap hit significantly, as often the first-year cap hit within their extensions are around half the number of the AAV.
Even at $25.2 million, that means his 2027 cap hit could feasibly be around $12.6 million, which is much lower than what he is currently slated for.
If the Packers are confident his play will not noticeably wane in his age 29 and 30 seasons, it would make sense to get a deal done early and give themselves more flexibility in the short term.
Even if the extension technically takes him into his 30s, it would probably be structured in a way that the team could get out of it at that stage if needed, as their contracts traditionally are.
The biggest caveat may be that this time next year, the Packers will be weighing up extensions for other defensive backs like Evan Williams and Javon Bullard, and they may want to be wary of committing too many resources to the safety position.
They may want to wait until next offseason to assess their options, rather than committing now. However, McKinney seems like the level of player they would be willing to give a rare third contract to as one of the pillars of the franchise.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Should Packers extend Xavier McKinney's contract early?