It’s impossible to say what any given fantasy season might hinge on. A Week 13 injury here, a Week 7 garbage touchdown there. All of it matters, even if we don’t know what it is going to be in advance. What we do we know is the opportunity cost of some picks is far greater than others. There’s not a whiff of destiny at hand when you select Kyren Williams. Now, Omarion Hampton? Jeremiyah Love. You know the range of outcomes is great, even if you hope it is one way or the other. You are planting your flag when you make the pick or fade it. With that throat clearing out of the way, here are this season’s “fateful eight,” the players from each of the first eight rounds who offer the widest range of potential outcomes.
Writer’s note: For ADP, I have selected Yahoo. Although I obsessively follow best ball ADP, Yahoo obviously offers a more realistic snapshot of what you might see in your home leagues.
Round 1 - Justin Jefferson (1.11)
27-year-old Jefferson has been there, done that. He spent the first three years of his career winning leagues. He’s spent most of the past three helping to lose them thanks to forces beyond his control. That has included an injury-interrupted 2023 and persistent quarterback problems. Jefferson has caught passes from eight different signal callers during that timespan. Kyler Murray will be the ninth. Although Kyler is no one’s idea of a savior, he’s better than Carson Wentz, Max Brosmer and J.J. McCarthy. That’s what Jefferson was working with as he wheezed to 1,048 yards in 17 games last season. Then again, Murray was just benched for Jacoby Brissett, and released by the Cardinals during the offseason. He is a flawed, possibly declining player, one who has not always seen eye to eye with his weapons. There’s a reason he’s a reclamation project. This could nevertheless end up the most effortless bounce-back pairing anyone has ever seen. Murray has never had a play-caller like Kevin O’Connell, and Jefferson doesn’t need a miracle to return to legitimate first-round status, just modest improvement. Jefferson could easily win leagues if Murray returns to his pre-2025 norms. But he will be a potential albatross if Murray and the Vikes continue on their respective 2025 trajectories.
Round 2 - Omarion Hampton (2.7)
Hampton was limited to nine rookie appearances as he suffered two injuries. He handled 20-plus touches only twice. He was middle of the pack in most metrics, advanced or otherwise. New OC Mike McDaniel almost literally pounded the table to add change-of-pace back Keaton Mitchell in free agency. So you could say it’s surprising Hampton’s ADP increased this offseason. It figures to fall after McDaniel recently claimed he intends to use three backs and ride the “hot hand,” but it’s not going to be beyond the early third round. Hampton’s upside case is self-evident. He’s a 23-year-old former first-rounder with a three-down skill-set playing for one of the league’s best play-callers. Fantasy drafters had just been all too eager to ignore the equally prevalent downside case before McDaniel put a fine point on it. Arguably more than any other player, Hampton appears destined to either be a league-winner or consolation-bracket clincher. He’s a fateful pick if there ever was one.
Round 3 - Jeremiyah Love (3.2)
There’s a reason Love is going in the third round. He’s on one of the league’s worst teams in its toughest division. The Cardinals spent real money on a veteran running back in free agency, and have one of the best “little things” backs in football still on the roster. There’s a new coach and bad offensive line, one that just lost its No. 34 overall rookie guard. But goodness, how often can you get a No. 3 overall running back in the third round? We all know Love was a “bad pick” when it came to the Cardinals’ manifold roster needs. But it takes a special player to coerce a team into that poor of a decision, and the very real possibility of a special outcome in fantasy is being too easily dismissed by the increasingly sophisticated drafting public. The trend will only accelerate following Love's preseason ankle injury. No one wants to look dumb taking the risky rookie. But you could end up the smartest person in the room if you’re willing to live a little.
Round 4 - Emeka Egbuka (4.6)
There was Egbuka’s first half — 40/677/6 in nine games — then his second. With the Bucs’ offense collapsing, Egbuka rookie wall’d to the tune of 23/261/0 in eight contests. Grisly stuff. Also forgivable. This was a team-wide disaster, including at quarterback as Baker Mayfield (again) played through a debilitating shoulder injury. It was enough to get OC Josh Grizzard fired and for Mike Evans to finally give up on his beloved Bucs. They’re out, and not much else is in. This is still a talented, deep offense, but Egbuka is now the primary talent. It’s easy to focus on negatives like Egbuka’s awful 2025 finish, but his first half positives were the far bigger takeaway for a rookie. With the slate now wiped clean, a battle-tested Ebuka will be more ready for the regular ups and downs of the NFL. He’s a WR1 living in plain fourth-round sight. At least that’s my take. The more bearish framing is the Bucs’ collapse has only begun, and that 2026 will be even worse than 2025. Those two extremes are why Egbuka is going in the fourth instead of the second. I believe it should be the latter. We should know pretty early on if he indeed deserved the former.
Round 5 - Jayden Daniels (5.5)
We have already seen the two extremes of Jayden Daniels. His rookie year was charmed. His sophomore season was cursed. They both tell an accurate story. Daniels has the kind of dual-threat skill-set that prints money in fantasy league. He really runs. He can actually pass. It’s almost too good to be true, which, of course, it was last year. But he’s just as likely to repeat his scintillating rookie campaign as his disastrous second season. That’s what makes him a particularly fateful fifth-round pick as the QB5. Anything is possible. We know because we have already seen it.
Round 6 - Harold Fannin Jr. (6.10)
Harold Fannin set the single-season FBS records for tight end catches (117) and yards (1,555) his final year at Bowling Green. Then he entered the NFL and scored the sixth most rookie tight end PPR points of all time with Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders as his quarterbacks. He’s going as the TE7. We all know why. Fannin is somehow in danger of downgrading that disastrous quarterback situation while his target competition has very much been upgraded in the form of first-round receiver KC Concepcion and second-rounder Denzel Boston. Concerning. Then again, fellow seam stretcher David Njoku has been subtracted while new head coach and play-caller Todd Monken has been added. Say what you will about Monken, he wasn’t stripped of play-calling duties twice in the past three years like Kevin Stefanski. He’s quite possibly an upgrade, and a big one at that. There are legitimate reasons to worry Fannin will take a step back as a sophomore. We must also acknowledge he is someone who has produced at Bowling Green and with a walking meme trio as his quarterbacks. He’s potentially a special player, and those don’t usually go in the sixth round.
Round 7 - Carnell Tate (7.3)
Similar to the Jeremiyah Love situation, it’s not too often you are going to find a No. 4 overall skill player going in the seventh round. That’s especially true in today’s receiver-obsessed drafting environment. So why is Tate going so late? Like Love, there are environmental issues. The Titans have dramatically upgraded their skill corps and coaching staff, but it’s still unproven at best and undermanned at worst. Unlike with Love, there are production question marks. You may have heard (from me yelling about it on the podcast) that Tate is the rare top-five receiver who never had a 1,000-yard season in college. He was never even the best wideout on his own team. He’s not as proven as you would expect from his draft capital. But he has that draft capital because he’s a size/speed prospect who is a big-play machine down the field. That’s an area where Cam Ward shined at Miami but didn’t have the horses as a rookie. Ward/Tate could become an instant mid-rounds success story. Or they will remain young players struggling in a bad offense. Currently the WR30, Tate could finish inside the top 20 or outside the top 50. That’s the kind of variance that can decide fates.
Round 8 - George Kittle (8.3)
It’s not often a player with Kittle’s pedigree comes off the board in the eighth round. It’s also not often that a 32-year-old coming off a torn achilles’ tendon is one of the healthier players in his team’s skill corps. So are the 2026 San Francisco 49ers. Whenever Kittle has played, he has been one of the most efficient, explosive players in the history of the tight end position. We say “whenever he has played” because of how often he has not played, which included six games last season unrelated to his achilles. So Kittle is aging and frequently hurt but also the kind of player who has contributed to fantasy championships when he manages to stay healthy. That sounds like a fateful player as the TE9 in the eighth round.