After losing two of three in St. Louis, the Phillies are on the outside looking in at the postseason for the first day since June 4th. They’re on a 85-win pace currently. The Fangraphs Playoffs Odds are slightly more bullish on Philadelphia at 86.1 wins. Right now, the odds give them a 68.7% chance at fun games in October.
I guess 68.7 percent seems about right. They recovered from their April swoon to take the second wild card spot in June and have been there for nine weeks. Cooked would be over the top. So would singed be better? They’re right above the drop currently. On our masthead chat, we had a conversation about what is tilting these playoff odds numbers toward the Phillies. The main driver seems to be that the roster as constructed looked much better in April. But currently, they’re 27th in position player WAR despite being 2nd in pitching WAR. We assumed the Phillies would pitch well. The hitting has been disappointing for them.
The Braves might be able to keep them out. The pair have seven dates in September. Winning five of those would put enormous pressure on the Phillies. But the bigger news is that the Padres are surging. They have won five in a row and seven of their last ten. They were active at the trade deadline, grabbing Casey Mize, Robbie Ray (lol we don’t need divisions anymore) and also grabbed old friend Hunter Stratton for Triple-A depth. Mize was great in his second start after a very shaky first one. Robbie Ray has been, well, Robbie Ray which ain’t nothing. But the Padres are 7th in position player WAR and wRC+ this month and 11th in pitching WAR this month. So they’re gonna keep pushing. Meanwhile Arizona is 6th in position player WAR and 10th in pitching WAR this month as well.
Outside of a 2014-Braves-season-style collapse, it’s difficult to see the Braves blowing this. They certainly could, but a 3.7% chance of that seems about right. But at 9.5 games up, it’s getting late early. I’m not giggling, you’re giggling. OK, we’re both giggling, but you started it. So are the Phillies in the process of being cooked? I don’t know, but they have 40 games to figure it out.