The Right Stuff: Mariners at Astros Series Preview

It’s hard to believe after losing their series in New York, but the Mariners actually gained half a game in the Wild Card standings after salvaging a win on Thursday. The division is still the clearest path to the playoffs for Seattle since there are only two teams to leap frog in the AL West instead of six in the Wild Card race. That makes this series against the Astros a huge make-or-break moment for the M’s. A series win would be a big step forward. A sweep would catapult the team back into the thick of the division race. No pressure.

The Astros have managed to scramble to the top of the thoroughly mediocre AL West standings by going 15-9 since the All-Star break, the fourth best record in the AL during the second half of the season. Combined with a solid month of June, they’ve more than made up for their dismal start to the season. The team’s underlying metrics don’t really support such a strong effort, even during this hot streak over the last few weeks. Perhaps sensing the precarious state of their roster, they only made one move at the trade deadline, trading Spencer Arrighetti to the Blue Jays for Daulton Varsho. It was a bit of a surprise to see them neglect their pitching staff, though they have gotten a bunch of pitchers back from injury recently.

With so many warts across the roster, it certainly seems like the Astros will only go so far as Yordan Alvarez can carry them. And to be honest, he might just drag the team into the playoffs by himself. He has a very good chance to win the first AL Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera did it in 2012 and possibly even an extremely rare MLB Triple Crown, leading all of baseball in batting average, home runs, and RBI. His supporting cast is filled with familiar names, though many of them are diminished from their peaks during Houston’s heyday. Jeremy Peña is the one guy who has significantly improved over the past few years, though a few minor injuries have limited him to just 74 games this season. Varsho was a very smart pickup since the team’s outfield has been a huge weakness all season long. Unfortunately, he’s collected just four hits in nine games as an Astro.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

From a previous series preview:

After struggling to make much of an impact with the Rockies to start his career, Peter Lambert signed a one-year deal with the Yakult Swallows of NPB last year. He didn’t exactly excel, but he showed enough promise outside the oppressive environment in Colorado to earn a minor league deal with the Astros this offseason. He’s been pressed into service thanks to all the injuries Houston has dealt with and he’s looked pretty solid across four starts this year. He developed a straight cutter in Japan and that pitch has been a solid addition to his repertoire. He’s also got an excellent changeup to round out his deep arsenal. 

Against all odds, Lambert has been one of the Astros’ most consistent starters this year. Back in May, he held the Mariners to three runs in seven innings while striking out six.

The Astros picked up Hayden Wesneski in the Kyle Tucker trade with the Cubs a few years ago. He promptly blew out his elbow just six starts into his time with the Astros and missed more than a year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. As a prospect in Chicago’s organization, his huge sweeper stood out as his best pitch but he struggled with a pretty mediocre fastball. Houston has asked him to emphasize his sinker and cutter at the expense of his four-seamer and that’s been a useful trade-off so far. He’s made three starts since returning from his elbow injury in late July and his command has been a little shaky so far.

Hunter Brown missed two months of the season with a shoulder injury and he hasn’t looked like his dominant self since returning in mid June. His command has regressed significantly and he’s developed a bit of a home run problem despite running the highest groundball rate of his career. His issues all stem from his rusty command. He’s having trouble locating his secondary pitches around the zone and he’s leaving too many of his fastballs in the middle of the zone instead of getting them up where the pitch is much more effective. The Astros have needed him to anchor their injury riddled rotation so he’s been forced to figure out his issues on the fly.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers lost their four-game series to the Angels this week, losing three straight to finish the series and drop out of the final Wild Card spot. They’re playing in Sacramento this weekend. The Tigers now hold that third Wild Card spot after beating the Guardians this week. Another divisional matchup is on deck for them this weekend against the White Sox.