If history is any guide, Republicans could be in store for a beating at the ballot box in November.
President Donald Trump’s average approval rating has dipped below 40%, while his disapproval rating has climbed into the high 50s. In previous elections, when presidents had approval ratings below 50%, their parties have almost always performed poorly in the midterms. Trump is nowhere near that threshold.
Congressional Republicans are not doing much better. The generic ballot shows that most midterm voters favor Democrats, and congressional disapproval has soared in 2026 compared to 2025. It now sits in the high 60s.
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Republicans clearly need a new strategy. As strange as it might sound, one of the best models could come from their former nemesis, President Barack Obama, who managed to pull off one of modern political history’s biggest turnarounds in 2012.
Many Americans have forgotten that Obama’s reelection was far from assured. The Tea Party helped propel Republicans to a massive midterm victory in 2010. The recovery from the 2008 financial crash was extremely sluggish. Instability was spreading overseas, and fears about government spending were widespread. Throughout 2011, Obama’s approval rating remained in the low 40s and sometimes fell into the high 30s.
Obama turned things around in time for the 2012 presidential election by adopting two strategies that conservatives could use in 2026.
First, although many Americans were deeply unhappy with the economy in 2012, the Obama administration successfully persuaded millions of voters that their economic problems had been inherited from the George W. Bush administration.
Obama argued America could not afford to return to the failed policies that, in his view, caused the 2008 crash. Of course, his account conveniently ignored that many of those policies had been strongly supported by Democrats in Congress, but the political strategy worked.
The message became one of the centerpieces of Obama’s campaign. His team even adopted "Forward" as an official campaign slogan.
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Republicans have an obvious opportunity to make a similar case today. They inherited one of the worst inflation crises in decades when they took power in 2025. Housing costs and the prices of most consumer goods skyrocketed under Democratic rule for numerous reasons, including reckless spending, unnecessary lockdown and stimulus programs, supply chain problems and the Biden administration’s obsession with costly "green" energy sources.
If Republicans want to survive November, they must convince voters that returning power to the architects of those policies could make the affordability crisis even worse.
The second strategy Republicans could borrow from Obama is related but distinct.
Obama acknowledged in 2012 that the country had more work to do, but he also argued that his administration had made real progress in recovering from the 2008 housing crisis. Finishing the job, Obama warned, was "going to take more time than any of us would like."
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Republicans could make "Let us finish what we started" one of their central messages in 2026.
There is little reason for Republican candidates to pretend that the promised American Golden Age has already arrived. Voters know that groceries, housing, healthcare and other basic necessities remain painfully expensive. Any campaign that ignores those realities could come across as insulting or hopelessly detached.
A more credible message would acknowledge Americans’ continued struggles while arguing that free-market policies are beginning to work and need more time to produce the results voters want. Republican policymakers inherited a crisis so large that no administration could reasonably reverse it in only two years.
There are plenty of victories for Republicans to tout.
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Under President Joe Biden, there were more than 10 million border encounters, along with an unknown number of additional illegal entries that were never detected. Today, the border is secure, and illegal immigration is no longer a serious problem.
Under Democrats, the Consumer Price Index, a common measure of inflation, increased by a whopping 21% from January 2021 to January 2025.
Since Republicans took control of the federal government, CPI has increased by just 5%, well within historical norms.
The average sales price of a home also skyrocketed under Biden, increasing by more than $100,000 during his first two years in office.
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Under Trump and congressional Republicans, home prices have hardly budged. Housing affordability remains a major problem, but conservative policies have at least stopped it from getting worse.
None of these accomplishments guarantees Republicans a victory. Elections are rarely won by statistics alone. Voters must believe that the country is moving in the right direction and that changing course could erase whatever progress has been made.
Obama understood this in 2012. He did not need voters to believe that every problem had been solved. He needed them to accept three basic claims: He had inherited a disaster, his policies had produced measurable progress and his opponents would reverse that progress.
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Whether voters accept a similar argument from Republicans could determine control of Congress in November. If Republican candidates continue acting as though public frustration is irrelevant, history suggests they could face a devastating defeat.
If they study Obama’s successful strategy, acknowledge the country’s continuing problems and make a persuasive case for finishing the work they began, they might still have time to change the trajectory of the election.