As the Yankees have continued to squeak by thanks to elite pitching, the question has only grown louder: when will the bats wake up? The answer, for the most part, is whenever the triumvirate of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton recover (or, perhaps, last night). Bellinger and Stanton have both been working out on the field at Yankee Stadium and seem to be getting somewhat close to a return. Aaron Boone opined earlier this week on the potential order of return for these big veteran bats, indicating that Bellinger -> Stanton -> Judge was the likely order of operations here.
There are no sure things in baseball, but we have a solid idea of what to expect from two of these guys when they return. Bellinger is a fairly safe bet to provide his usual above-average offense and high-level defense as part of his well-rounded game, and Judge, if fully healthy, should still be among the game’s best once he steps back in between the lines. The situation with Stanton, however, feels less predictable. As the fearsome yet fragile slugger prepares to make yet another return from injury, what do you expect from Stanton the rest of this season?
I’m not sure there’s a single outcome from Stanton that would shock me down the stretch. First, we can consider the more fun scenarios, and we need only flashback to last year to remember a time when a healthy Stanton found his stride and pushed the Yankee offense to new heights. Stanton famously missed nearly the first three months of 2025 with injuries to both elbows, and looked sluggish in his first month back. Then, Stanton hit a pinch-hit home run to spur a scintillating comeback from down 5-0 against the Mariners on July 10th, kicking off one of the hottest stretches of Stanton’s career. Over the next month, Stanton hit .360/.433/.837 with 13 homers, helping carry the Yankees through a period where Judge went on the IL with elbow issues of his own. That run, and more broadly his 156 OPS+ on the year, were proof that even at his age, Stanton could rake when he found his groove.
On the other hand, there’s the bearish case on Stanton’s bat. Stanton had anuninspiring 103 wRC+ when he went on the injured list early this year with what was a described as a “minor” calf problem, and he was hitting even worse in the weeks leading up to the injury. Stanton had started the year hot, racking up a strangely high amount of singles during the season-opening road trip, but in April, Stanton hit just .186 with two homers and a .579 OPS before hitting the IL. Stanton obviously has his slumps, but there’s also a chance that at 36-years-old, he’s just cooked.
Unsurprisingly, projection systems peg Stanton to fall somewhere between these two extremes, ZiPS putting Stanton’s slash line at .228/.301/.459 with a 111 wRC+. And even beyond this range of outcomes, there’s the straightforward possibility that Stanton comes back and just gets hurt again.
What do you think? Does Stanton have one more legendary run in him? Do you expect there to be nothing left in this bat, or will he succumb to injuries yet again before he even gets a chance to get hot?
We’ve got a matinee to close out the series with Seattle today, so this morning, check out Peter’s recap of last night’s American League action, as well as Matt’s profile of a pseudo-legendary figure in Yankee history, Jay Buhner. Also, Josh will provide some trenchant commentary on the Yankees’ deal with the private equity firm Apollo, and Michael opines on Gerrit Cole’s chances of getting back onto a Hall-of-Fame track now that’s re-established himself post-injury.
Today’s Matchup:
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Time: 1:35 p.m. EST
TV: YES Network, Mariners.TV
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY