What is wrong with Paul Skenes? And how can the Pirates' ace get back on track?

Something is wrong with Paul Skenes. That much is indisputable.

The reigning NL Cy Young, just 24 years old, has looked diminished for a while now — still capable but noticeably below the supersonic standard he set during his first two big-league seasons. A slight but certain dip in his fastball velocity has accompanied a similar decline in his statistical output. Between mid-May and early July, the Pirates lost nine of Skenes’ starts. Yet patience seemed prudent. This was still one of the best in the business. Skenes would get things sorted. How could he not?

But in the big man’s most recent showing, a five-inning trudge on Tuesday in Miami, those yellow flags turned scarlet. His four-seam fastball velocity dipped to a career single-game low of 95.7 mph, nearly a tick and a half below his previous start. Most telling, however, was the outing’s briefness. Pittsburgh skipper Don Kelly removed Skenes after just five innings and 65 pitches, sparking speculation about a potential injury.

After the game, yet another soul-crushing defeat for the down-and-out Pirates, Kelly offered a fragile endorsement of his hurler’s health.

“Anybody this time of year is …. not injured, but guys in August aren’t 100 percent,” Kelly said, per MLB.com. “It wasn’t injury-related that he came out.”

Just a few months ago, the idea of a hale Skenes being yanked on such a low pitch count in a close game would have been downright inconceivable. Remember, this guy wasn’t just good; he was extraordinary beyond compare.

Across 2024 and 2025, Skenes delivered the single greatest two-year start to a pitching career in MLB history. Over 320 2/3 frames, the 2023 No. 1 pick posted a microscopic 1.96 ERA over 55 starts with nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Statistically speaking, nobody in the long and winding baseball story had ever been that good out of the shoot. Skenes was imposing, untouchable, inevitable, indomitable. A bully, a star, an ace.

Now, Skenes’ 3.88 season ERA ranks 37th out of 58 qualified starting pitchers. The peripherals look somewhat rosier — he’s still racking up strikeouts at an elite clip — but it’s impossible to argue that everything is hunky-dory.

So what, exactly, is wrong? Let’s flip through the possibilities.

1. Skenes is injured

Call it Occam’s Scalpel: Any pitcher under 30 years old with a track record of success who experiences a significant dip in velocity or a prolonged dip in effectiveness is probably hurt. Surgery is usually the fix, the long path back to one’s best self. 

There’s definitely an element of fatalistic laziness in directing any underperforming pitcher to an MRI machine or operating table. But that’s the unfortunate reality of baseball’s modern age, in which elbow ligaments are interchangeable and surgeons are celebrities. Pitchers are throwing harder than ever, so they break more than ever. At least we’re better than ever at putting them back together again.

Skenes and his skipper have repeatedly denied the presence of a significant injury, but that doesn’t mean there’s not some type of physical ailment hampering him. As Kelly alluded to, pitchers play through discomfort all the time. Knowing the difference between an ache you play through and an injury you don’t is a massive part of being a big leaguer. Most pitchers’ arms would make an MRI machine fritz and sizzle. It’s all about pain tolerance and performance.

With this being such a critical campaign for the Pittsburgh Pirates, a club that entered 2026 with legitimate playoff expectations for the first time in Skenes’ tenure, it makes sense that the face of the franchise might be hesitant to accept an IL stint. That would be both commendable and foolhardy. After all, even this reduced version of Skenes is better than whatever depth option would fill his rotation spot.

2. There’s a mechanical issue

Pitchers, like people, often change over time. That’s not inherently a bad thing. Bodies evolve; the game does, too. Over-analyzing and over-indexing mechanical minutiae across seasons or starts, particularly for a layman, can be a fool's errand. 

Yet it’s strikingly clear that Skenes is moving differently than he used to.

Keep an eye on his right arm after the hands separate and before the front foot lands. For whatever reason, 2026 Skenes is employing a significantly longer arm path than 2024 Skenes. This has probably led to a downtick in deception; hitters are able to see his throwing hand clearer and for longer, making the baseball easier to pick up.

Skenes is also significantly more rotational now than he used to be, moving more like a swivel chair and less like a windmill. That’s likely the cause behind his longer arm path; issues with the lower half are often the root cause of issues with the upper half. Because he’s sinking deeper into his back leg, he’s forcing himself to be more rotational to escape that position, which is in turn leading to the arm path.

These changes could be intentional or accidental. Perhaps Skenes wanted to adopt a more natural, free-flowing arm path to try to avoid the injury woes that have befallen shorter-arm-path guys such as Spencer Strider, Lucas Giolito and Joe Musgrove. Perhaps general wear and tear have stiffened his shoulder or elbow, necessitating a longer path. Perhaps this is all inadvertent.

3. The workload has gotten to him

It’s hard to believe, but Paul Skenes is two months younger than Jacob Misiorowski. 

Skenes arrived in The Show fully formed, with the body of a moose and the deep, rumbling voice of a race car engine. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s flame-throwing phenom debuted a year after Skenes and has the face, Pokemon collection and comportment of a 12-year-old. Another key difference between last year’s Cy Young winner and this year’s Cy Young favorite is the workload restrictions that have been placed upon them.

At first, the Pirates were cautious with Skenes. He barely threw in pro ball in the months after he was drafted in 2023. Pittsburgh got some heat in 2024 for sending Skenes to Triple-A in order to limit his innings. In seven minor-league outings, he went above 66 pitches just twice and never surpassed 75. But as soon as Skenes arrived in the bigs, the training wheels came off. Since his debut on May 11, 2024, Pittsburgh’s right-handed hope has thrown the seventh-most pitches in MLB.

Misiorowski, by comparison, ranks 62nd in regular-season pitches thrown in the 14 months since his debut. Skenes, over a similar span following his first MLB outing, ranked 13th.

Compared to the aces of yesteryear, these inning and pitch totals are child’s play. But those on-mound ancestors weren’t stretching their ligaments asunder to squeeze every last drop of velocity out of every single pitch. Skenes was and still is. The Pirates rode him hard because, by all indications, he was up to the challenge. 

Plus, he and the team knew they needed every last one of his innings to have a shot at contending. Skenes and his massive frame looked custom-built to carry 200 innings a year. But there’s a decent chance the big guy needs to dial back the workload. These days, there’s no shame in that.

4. He’s out of shape

Don’t believe the bloviating radio shock jocks: Those paparazzi photos of a shirtless Skenes strolling the beach are not an actual data point. Our society loves overreacting to zoomed-in, unflattering photos of professional athletes, and Skenes is merely the latest victim of this unsavory trend. Also, a larger body does not inherently imply an out-of-shape individual. Remember, CC Sabathia is in the Hall of Fame.

And despite all the public responsibilities and opportunities associated with his ascending celebrity, Skenes is famously finicky about his offseason regimen. For instance, he agreed to appear at a Fanatics Super Bowl party only if he could secure time at a qualified training facility nearby. It’s patently unfair to imply that Skenes is phoning it in or letting himself go.

But while it’s impossible to imagine Skenes under-training, it is possible to imagine a scenario in which he over-trained or mis-trained. Not every offseason plan works. Maybe Skenes threw too much or too little last winter. Maybe he spent too much time on cardio and not enough time on the squat rack. Maybe that water bag drill he loves is why he’s over-rotating. Who knows? Maybe this winter he’ll pull a Victor Wembanyama and spend a few weeks at a monastery in rural China.

No matter the reason or combination of reasons for his recent averageness, it would be shortsighted and irrational to give up on Skenes as a front-line arm. Still 24 years old, this man is neither cooked nor unc. He is simply too athletic, too intelligent and too driven to be this mediocre for the long haul.

That said, Skenes and the Pirates’ pitching apparatus deserve some criticism for what has transpired this season. Barring a late-season heater, this Buccos season will go down as one of the most disappointing in franchise history. That’s saying something. Skenes was supposed to lead the line, pushing Pittsburgh back to the postseason. And while he’s not responsible for most of the shortcomings infecting this franchise, a repeat of his 2025 would’ve had the Pirates in the postseason hunt.

Baseball history is littered with flashes in the pan, pitchers who shined bright only to fade quickly. Injuries, more often than not, were the culprit in those scenarios. Accordingly, that remains the only long-term concern for Skenes. But if he is healthy, a full offseason of rest and tinkering and resetting should get him back on track. 

Sadly, for the 2026 Pirates, it’ll be too late.