Clemson is still earning some preseason respect from ESPN’s SP+ model, but the outlook is noticeably more tempered than it was a year ago.
The Tigers land at No. 23 in the final preseason rankings with a 13.1 rating, which places them second in the ACC behind No. 7 Miami. They also sit just ahead of South Carolina, continuing a familiar regional hierarchy in the model’s projections.
Much of Clemson’s standing is being propped up by its defense. The Tigers check in at No. 18 on that side of the ball, suggesting a unit that should remain competitive in most matchups. However, the offense is projected at No. 46, and special teams come in at No. 41, highlighting the areas that could limit overall ceiling if they don’t improve.
Taken together, SP+ forecasts Clemson for 7.9 wins against the nation’s No. 41 schedule. In ACC play, the model expects the Tigers to finish with 5.1 conference wins, trailing Miami, SMU and Louisville in the projected standings.
The season opens with a major early test. Clemson travels to LSU, which is ranked No. 10 nationally, and enters that matchup as a 9.8-point underdog according to the model. It’s an immediate measuring stick for a team trying to reestablish itself among the sport’s elite.
The more cautious projection reflects how last season unfolded. Clemson entered 2025 ranked No. 8 in SP+ expectations but ultimately finished 7-6, falling well short of those preseason standards.
Analyst Joel Klatt shares what he sees as a successful season for Clemson
— Clemson Wire (@Clemson_Wire) August 14, 2026
📸 Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network , USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co https://t.co/aCuPldQJvQpic.twitter.com/F5UZJRPWV9
ESPN analyst Bill Connelly noted that swings like that are part of the process.
“There will always be some Clemson-style whiffs, and trying to guess which ones they’ll be is part of the fun.”
For 2026, the model is clearly taking a more restrained approach to Dabo Swinney’s program, banking on a solid defense but less certainty on the offensive side of the ball.
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This article originally appeared on Clemson Wire: Where Clemson lands in EPSN’s final preseason SP+ projections for 2026