BTC has entered a phase of consolidation after a sharp decline from January highs near $100k. The price action shows that BTC has been respecting a broad ascending channel. The primary current support area is around $60k, and resistance is near the $75k mark. Short-term momentum is also weak, and the market appears to be digesting the previous spike, with volatility remaining elevated as traders are expecting lower levels.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, BTC remains below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are located around the $77k and $90k levels, respectively. This demonstrates that the overall broader trend is still bearish, especially with the large descending channel still intact.
The price attempted to push back above the $75k zone in March, but failed decisively. The subsequent lower highs and lows formed signals that sellers are still in control, and are likely to push the asset back below the midline of the channel. This makes the critical support level at $64k vulnerable in the short-term, and a break below it could reopen the downside toward the next key level near $50k.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows BTC struggling to hold the short-term ascending channel’s lower boundary. The recent rejection from the bearish order block located around $69k could well be the final nail in the coffin and send BTC back toward the $60 area.
Consequently, short-term selling pressure has clearly increased in the past few sessions, and with the RSI also approaching levels below 40, market momentum is clearly in favor of the sellers. Therefore, all eyes are now locked on a potential revisit of the $60k supply zone, and the market’s reaction to this level, as it could be very influential for the whole crypto market trend in the upcoming months.
On-Chain Analysis
Funding rates have primarily been negative across all exchanges since February, with just a mild recovery in the past two weeks. This reflects the bearish pressure in perpetual markets. It seems that more and more traders are either speculating and expecting lower prices or are actively hedging their portfolios by shorting in the futures market, as the price is at a critical zone.
Traders should carefully follow the funding rates over the upcoming weeks, as both extreme positive and negative values would signal heightened volatility and increased risk. Elevated leveraged positioning in the futures market amid the current geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties indicates that Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are not an appropriate investment at this time for most risk-averse investors, and especially the large institutions that actually drive the price.
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